Replies to post #7145 on Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MNTA)

[t57]

if what is implied is that s-NVS needs to bank $135M and then start paying a 55/45 split....the equasion would be $135m divided by 60% gross margin = approx $225M.

anything above gross sales of $225M will start to yeild a 45% profit split.


am I correct?

[Rocky3]

Quote:
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My fear is that SNY made the calculation that they would do much better with an AG in the market than they were doing without it, and would have come into the market aggressively anyway
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Why didn't they do so earlier? I think that is a powerful statement of their intent. Might their intent have changed? Possibly - but I'd say it is far from a certainty. My WAG is that mL keeps greater than 40% market share.

(1) We reallly have no idea why they didn't do it earlier. Maybe because they were happy with the then-split. Maybe because they thought that they would do better over time than they did. Maybe because they had some internal issue with staffing or something that drove their decision. We don't know. It is possible that it will be determined in discovery.

(2) Your numbers on earnings were very close to mine - ~$2.00/sh to ~.30 depending how much is lost to the AG. Since (IMO) most of the value of the company is in mC, it is a very nice base and an validation of its IP, but will not determine the "real" price of the stock until mC is approved.

[io_io]

My WAG is that mL keeps greater than 40% market share. Say $800M or better
PS and FWIW my calcs are:
mL keeps $1B sales, GM=68%, Momenta Revenues=$269M, Momenta Earnings=$110M
mL keeps $800M sales, GM=64%, Momenta Revenues=$195M, Momenta Earnings=$62M
mL keeps $600M sales, GM=60%, Momenta Revenues=$128M, Momenta Earnings=$18M

Well, given that MNTA's quarter revenue of just $22m including a month of profit-share mode, and that Ampha has yet only a "neglegible" (source = BV board) market share, is it time to concede that your Sales and Gross Margin number projections were way off base?