Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MNTA)

[iwfal]

My fear is that SNY made the calculation that they would do much better with an AG in the market than they were doing without it, and would have come into the market aggressively anyway

Why didn't they do so earlier? I think that is a powerful statement of their intent. Might their intent have changed? Possibly - but I'd say it is far from a certainty. My WAG is that mL keeps greater than 40% market share. Say $800M or better

PS and FWIW my calcs are:

mL keeps $1B sales, GM=68%, Momenta Revenues=$269M, Momenta Earnings=$110M

mL keeps $800M sales, GM=64%, Momenta Revenues=$195M, Momenta Earnings=$62M

mL keeps $600M sales, GM=60%, Momenta Revenues=$128M, Momenta Earnings=$18M

(Assumed 35% tax rate and $100M/Yr operating costs at Momenta)