Replies to post #129566 on Biotech Values

[zipjet]

Just so we are clear - I am asserting that the ratio of (defendants requested delay) divided by (plaintiffs requested delay) is a predictor of chance of PI being issued.

I understand and do not agree.

1/3 of the pharmacy market and all of the hospital market? Giving Sanofi about 2/3 of the total market. Wouldn't you expect Sandoz to retaliate with a tap on the hospital market.

It depends on the relative strengths (marketing, relationships, financial, etc) of the two. IF I were calling the shots for SNY. I would shoot to take 1/3 of the pharmacy market with a slight price cut and limiting supply. IF Sandoz turned to the hospital channel aggressively I would take off the cloves and take a bigger part of the pharmacy market. My guess is that SNY could take 1/5th to 1/3rd of the pharmacy market without triggering significant penetration of the hospital channel. That is what I would try to do. MNTA is far more at risk to error in this game of chicken than SNY.

ij