Replies to post #129565 on Biotech Values

[iwfal]

it offers no useful info on who will prevail

Just so we are clear - I am asserting that the ratio of (defendants requested delay) divided by (plaintiffs requested delay) is a predictor of chance of PI being issued. But a substantially less good indicator of trial success (the PI ruling is a judgement on strength of each party's case and each party's damages - and the question of requested trial delay forces an answer balancing both. But the trial is only about the former and so correlates less well to the question of trial delay.).

IF I were running this for SNY I would tap the pharmacy market more lightly if I thought no aL would launch and try to take say 1/3 of that market giving me about 2/3's of the whole.

1/3 of the pharmacy market and all of the hospital market? Giving Sanofi about 2/3 of the total market. Wouldn't you expect Sandoz to retaliate with a tap on the hospital market. And that is my point. I'd expect Sanofi to maintain >43% market share by revenue - not be sucked down into the 30s.

[marthambles]

I still think the AG will be dissolved

I assume you mean TRO, not AG?

[oldberkeley]

Zip: Asking for a bit of fortune telling here, but if the TRO is dissolved and no PI issued, would you expect the market to further penalize MNTA's PPS, and if so, by how much?

All IYHO, FWIW of course.

[mouton29]

<<The key to the time required will depend greatly on discovery time lines.>>

Putting aside each side's incentives in answering the question, my initial reaction as a nonlitigator was that one year is very long, but on further reflection, I'm not sure that is true for even moderately complicated commercial litigation. An elevator conversation with a litigator suggests that one year would be quick for most complex commercial litigation. Obviously the answer depends on how narrow the issues are, how many people need to be deposed, etc. In this case, even if you thought that the liability issue would not require extended discovery, I could imagine a great deal of discovery on various issues relating to damages.