Replies to post #129246 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

shouldn't take much for NVS to get $100M in profits from lovenox, assuming they maintain 35%-50% of the market.

Correct.

[pollyvonwog]

I agree. If it's NVS, then it isn't that dramatic (Should take NVS around a q and a half) and it would also mean the irreparable harm part of the PI case would still be relevant. My quick math says Amphastar launching would still cost MNTA $120-150m profits a year.

[zipjet]

shouldn't take much for NVS to get $100M in profits from lovenox, assuming they maintain 35%-50% of the market

The assumption is too generous.

In some post I described a market channel segmentation* view of how sales might shake out. It would not be favorable to MNTA IF I have that right. That too suggests your numbers are too high.

But worst of all, how can anyone take the 45% profit share seriously once you know that the hybrid split was triggered by the AG AND we can reasonably expect an Amphastar launch (or a TEVA launch) which would reduce the payments to a straight royalty.

ij

*
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