Hi alea,
Speaking of "the MNOs wanting to participate in the flow of value through their pipes: from ticketing, transactions, the distribution of applications etc," do you have any information on the application revenue sharing model they now have with Apple and their developer community? The same question could be asked relative to the Android community.
It would also be interesting to know how the handset makers for the Android platform currently fare in sharing application revenues, if they do at all. The Samsungs of the world don't have the leverage of Apple with their closed community, so this would explain their motivation to participate in the NFC Forum as I believe you pointed out in an earlier post.
Knowing who gets what in today's market could provide an idea of how future battle lines may be drawn for the consumer space as TC evolves in mobile.