Replies to post #3555 on The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[north40000]

MON

"fueling a +5% share-price move today[Wednesday]"

Another +7.6% today.

[DewDiligence]

SYT posts 21% growth in 3Q11 and raises full-year guidance due to strong sales in Brazil and Argentina:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/14/syngenta-idUSL5E7LE02D20111014

This echoes what MON said on its FY4Q11 CC last week (#msg-67723695).

Biotech seeds and traits comprise only 20% of SYT’s sales (compared to 73% for MON), but this is where a large portion of SYT’s growth is expected to come from.

[DewDiligence]

MON has seen record sales of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina
in 2011, but the flip side may be lower soybean sales in the US
in 2012. Soy is MON’s second most important product after corn.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704101304577038183285986946.html

›Soy Story

DECEMBER 3, 2011
By ANDREW JOHNSON JR.

The recent slide in U.S. soybean prices will continue into 2012, as South America ramps up exports and cuts into demand for the U.S. crop.

U.S. soy futures have dropped 22% since Aug. 31, while Brazil and Argentina have been scooping up business from China, the world's leading importer of soybeans and the U.S.'s best customer. Competition from those Latin American countries is likely to become only fiercer next year. Brazilian and Argentine farmers are almost finished planting their next crop, and both are forecast to see bumper harvests starting in late February.

The big harvests will ensure ample global supplies, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasting that Brazil's soy exports in 2012 will surpass American shipments for the first time. The USDA already has acknowledged lower foreign demand, lowering its 2012 forecast for U.S. soy by 215 million bushels over the past seven months, to 1.33 billion from 1.54 billion.

"This shift means the U.S. may eventually need to produce only enough soybeans to cover domestic needs," said Karl Setzer, an analyst for MaxYield Cooperative in Iowa.

With fewer exports, U.S. inventories will return to more comfortable levels, easing concerns over supplies that drove futures to a three-year high in late August. Export demand has a big impact on price, with 45% of the soybeans grown in the U.S. used for exports the last crop year, ending Aug. 31. As overseas demand shrinks, U.S. soybean-futures prices will slip.

The huge jump in South American production is largely due to favorable weather [and also increased use of high-end seeds, especially in Brazil] during the growing season. Brazil and Argentina were left with more beans to sell, and those large inventories allowed them to stay in the export market for most of the year. Foreign buyers have relied primarily on the U.S. for soy supplies from September to January, but that window is narrowing as Latin American production grows.

Brazil's exports could rise 23% in the coming crop year to 36.8 million tons, while Argentina's exports may jump 30% to 12 million tons, according to the International Grain Council. The South American crop year runs from February to January.

Besides competition from Latin America, the U.S. is seeing softening world demand. Strong pricing for much of the year, a slowdown in the global economy and slumping growth in China all are negatives for soybean prices, said Anne Frick, senior oilseed analyst with Jefferies Bache in New York.

Soybeans for January delivery closed at $11.36 a bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade Friday. Frick said the most bullish case for soybeans sees prices in a range of $11 to $13 a bushel. "But with China imports of U.S. soybeans running slow, and large production forecast for Brazil and Argentina, prices could dip to the $8.50-to-$8.80 range by late 2012," she said.

Not only could the weather in Brazil and Argentina translate into another record harvest, farmers got seeds into the ground early, and might be ready to sell their crop earlier than usual. Those factors have shown up in soy prices trading near 13-month lows. But prices have further to fall.

"There is no apparent bullish fundamental catalyst to boost soy prices in the near term," said Bill Nelson, grains analyst with Doane Advisory Service in St. Louis.‹

[DewDiligence]

MON Increases FY1Q12 EPS Guidance

[“Guidance” in this instance is something of a misnomer insofar as FY1Q12 ended last week (Nov 30). MON is retaining its EPS guidance for FY2012 (ending 8/31/12) at $3.34-3.44, so the stronger than expected FY1Q12 appears to be more of a timing switch of sales from future quarters than unanticipated business strength overall.]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Monsanto-Increases-First-prnews-1529029552.html?x=0

›ST. LOUIS , Dec. 7, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Monsanto Company (NYSE: MON) today increased its expected earnings per share guidance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2012 and reaffirmed its full-year guidance, confirming its mid-teens earnings growth outlook for the year. The company now expects first-quarter ongoing and as-reported [i.e. Non-GAAP and GAAP] earnings per share in the range of $0.15 to $0.20 , an increase from the previous guidance of the high end of the $0.10 to $0.15 range.

Reflecting the company's strategic growth plan, the first quarter is driven primarily by the strength of the business in Brazil and Argentina , with some contribution from timing benefits in the U.S. and Australia.

Full year earnings per share and cash flow guidance are unchanged. Earnings per share for the full fiscal year are expected in the range of $3.34 to $3.44 on an ongoing and as-reported basis. The company projects free cash flow in the range of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion for fiscal year 2012, with net cash provided by operating activities to be $2.2 billion to $2.5 billion , and net cash required by investing activities to be approximately $900 million to $1 billion.

Pierre Courduroux, senior vice president and chief financial officer, will discuss the updated guidance when addressing investors today at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2011 Industrials Conference. Courduroux will speak at 10:45 a.m. central time and slides and a simultaneous audio webcast will be available for the presentation by visiting the investor section of Monsanto's web site at www.monsanto.com/investors. Following the live broadcast, a replay of the webcast will be available on the Monsanto web site for three weeks.

Monsanto will announce its first quarter earnings on Thursday, Jan. 5, 2012.‹

[DewDiligence]

Monsanto Invests $334M in Argentina Corn-Seed Plant

[As a hybrid plant, corn does not subject MON to the risk of being ripped off by replanted bootleg seed the way soybeans do, so MON has no qualms about doing corn business in Argentina. (MON does not currently sell soybeans in Argentina, but it is negotiating with the government for the IP protection it would need to do so (#msg-64084846).]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/16/snippet-idUSL1E8HG01320120616

›Fri Jun 15, 2012 8:51pm EDT

BUENOS AIRES, June 15 (Reuters) - U.S.-based seed agricultural Monsanto said it will invest $334 million in a corn seed development plant in Cordoba province, Argentina, scheduled to open in December 2013, the company said in a statement on Friday.

Argentina, the world's second-biggest corn exporter after the United States, has seen an explosion of soybean cultivation over recent years. The South American country - the No. 1 supplier of soymeal and soyoil, and the No. 3 exporter of soybeans – is hungry for better corn technology as it seeks to protect its soils by expanding crop rotation.‹