Yes - I do tend to be skeptical of the utility of long term computer model projections.
We cannot predict the weather in two weeks but project the temperature of the globe in 2050.
We cannot figure out how to grow GDP and employ the 12M people in the US who would have jobs if job penetration stats from 2008 had held up. But we can project the inevitability of enormous "middle classes" (not even sure what that means) in historically poor countries.
My guess is that the China miracle is not sustainable. We will see.
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