Pokersam:
The good news is we both agree that we are currently in a Bear market. Where we currently disagree is the projected duration and depth of this Bear market.
I have shown you that through out the entire history of the SPX a major Bear market has not occured over 8 months without a new SPX record high. You just blow it off. You have no historical data to the contrary. It really doesn't matter to me how long the Bear market is. I'm a long term trader. However, when there has not been one instance in SPX history that what your predicting has occured, the chances are like 1 in a million. I guess I'm going to have to start the 12 month countdown to 600. He!He! As of today that's 573.97 points to go or a 47.83 point decline each month. I'll just post an update once a month, so it doesn't get pushed to the side.
Your question: "At what point in the decline will your system tell you we are in the BIG BEAR I discribed?" That is really insignificant to me. As long as the Monthly price remains below the Monthly LTL I will be in Bear mode. For all I care it can go to zero. I've got my guns and ammo when all Hell breaks loose.
At the time of these two posts the Weekly price was above the Lower Trend Line (LTL) and even got above the Weekly EMA 8. So it was very possible (because history has shown) that the Weekly was headed to the Upper Trend Line (UTL). Also with the Weekly in the 5th Week, it was looking like an average Weekly Phase 1 in duration. We still have not broken the 1101 level so that currently remains the Weekly Cycle low as of today.
Post #26234
"It looks like now the 1250 level may be very close in negating the Bear crossing. That would be about a 40 point gain today on the SPX. I myself would prefer a confirmed Bear crossing, since Oct 1987 there have been 4 Bear crossing that have only lasted one month. Hopefully this will be the 5th and then a new Bull market confirmed next month that would take us to new SPX record highs. Then after that we get the BIG BEAR."
Post #26233:
"I'm thinking the SPX 1101 was the low for the Weekly cycle and now the Weekly is back in a major Bull trend. Right now the SPX 60 min is very OB so I expect a pullback at anytime, but if we are in this new Weekly Bull trend, it probably won't be much of a pullback. The Weekly upper trend level is at 1268.27 if we cross that level then it is up up and away to the 1370 level."
Lastly you made this statement:
"My system has proven itself consistantly to be very accurate" I have yet to see anything that has proven that. Maybe you could post some documentation.
I hope this was soft enought, because I sure don't want any wrath.
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