The $5B figure has been floated around so much that I think the market is expecting it to be around that. And since we're about 2 weeks away from likely hearing anything I think a lot of investors are waiting to jump in. I expect we'll see a ramp up in PPS, especially the week after labor day. If the market is really expecting about $105 than we should see a run to like $80.
However, I do think the $5B number is BS. Simply Nortel plus cash. For the many reasons outlined, IDCC "should" go for much more than Nortel. Apple will look at IDCC's value to them for the coming DECADES. I bet Google will still bid but won't go as high as they would have as a result of their MMI purchase.
I bought 5 SEPT $120 contracts today for $10 bucks each. A gamble sure but only a $50 gamble that could turn into $50,000 within the next 3 weeks.