Replies to post #125375 on Biotech Values

[biomaven0]

Good analysis.

Here's what I said on this board a little over a year ago:

Some months ago I said on this forum [prior to MNTA's approval] that I though the most likely outcome was MNTA approval and a Teva "no decision." Looks like that is where we are. My current guess is that Teva will have to resubmit, and so a competitor is a year or two off. Meantime MNTA should make a fair amount of money, although I believe the Teva overhang will continue to prevent MNTA receiving a decent PE multiple.

My view is nevertheless that MNTA stock will outperform over the next year though.

I'm still in the camp that says that Teva will get approval (this year or next) and it would seem that that's the market's view as well. But if I (and the market) are mistaken, then MNTA is a screaming buy, and even if the market is correct, there is starting to be substantial downside protection here from the cash and higher royalty rate.

Peter

[mcbio]

Absent a complete meltdown in EU, MNTA seems a relatively safe and high yielding place to invest.

To me, it's kind of funny you hear all the talk about potential global recession and potential cutback in reimbursements, etc. Well, wouldn't you think a company that is in the business of lowering healthcare costs would be a beneficiary of these difficult times? Of course, MNTA just gets lumped in with everyone else that is being hit hard these days. But, I think, if anything, fundamentals have improved in these difficult times. I don't see a complete meltdown in the EU having a material effect on U.S. mL sales.