Replies to post #124943 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

My mistake the high dose is on-par or a bit better then NKTR-118 but they had a higher placebo response. Here is a link to the poster if anyone wants to do cross-trial comparisons and be shunned by non-investors
nektar.com/pdf/pipeline/NKTR-118/Nektar_poster118AAPM.pdf

Just to be absolutely clear on the ADLR data, their SBMs are the number per week, correct, and not total number over 4 week period? I believe they refer to primary endpoint being weekly SBMs but when they disclose the actual number in the PR they don't specifically say that it's a per week number. I'm probably reading too much into that. Also, high dose for ADLR drug is 3.4 SBMs (presumably per week) compared to 4.4 SBMs/week for NKTR high dose (50 mg). I think you said before NKTR isn't moving that dose forward but the 25mg dose still produced 3.6 SBMs/week, which is still a tad better than the ADLR drug.

[mcbio]

My mistake the high dose is on-par or a bit better then NKTR-118 but they had a higher placebo response. Here is a link to the poster if anyone wants to do cross-trial comparisons and be shunned by non-investors
nektar.com/pdf/pipeline/NKTR-118/Nektar_poster118AAPM.pdf

Disregard my comments in #msg-66066644 as I listened to ADLR's CC and it seemed pretty clear that the data presented was a weekly mean number for SBMs. So, the efficacy results do appear to be legit. A few other notes from the call:

1. ADLR expects to start Phase 3 trials in the first part of 2012 and they will cost $60M. They mentioned circling back to potential partners but the tone didn't leave me with a high expectation they would land a partner prior to start of Phase 3 on their own.

2. They really pushed the tolerability profile of ADL5945 and they thought this could differentiate them from the competition (Relistor and NKTR-118 presumably).

3. Patient population in the trial was chronic non-cancer patients on high dose opioids (target population for drug).

4. ADLR expects to go forward with the .25mg BID dose in Phase 3 but hasn't entirely ruled out testing the .25mg QD dose pending further analysis.

All told, I think this is good data for ADLR and I'm surprised the stock had a muted reaction. That said, I won't be selling my PGNX shares on this news (or buying ADLR, but will keep an eye on them for now).