Unfortunately I have to remain bearish, untill the imbalances don't start improving.I see ever increasing levels of consumer debt in the environment of weak employment and stagnant wages as an extreme problem for the economy. Consumer overspending and getting heavily in debt does it at the expense of the future spending and economic activity. Snowball effect from lower consumer spending, leading to more lay offs and even lower consumer spending has to play out at some point. This situation has to be resolved one way or another.
There is absolutely nothing out there beyond ever increasing home values and endless borrowing and refinancing to sustain consumer overspending. Nothing. Even the jobs that are being created are either very low quality, or housing related.
Almost every day I talk to people who are up to their eyeballs in debt and still keep going on caribean vacations, or buying new cars they don't really need, or taking on mortgages they can't afford.
Consumer is under enormous stress. Savings are non-existant.
And thats the savings that drive the real bull markets.
What I'd really like to see is a consumer recession acompanied by deflation. Then I'll be bullish :)
As for trading, I sualy only buy something I consider value, and don't chase momentum. there is no way I'll buy a grocery store stock at 40 P/E :) as WFMI.
Short selling hasn't been profitable to say the least last few weeks, but I picked up some oil stocks a few days ago, and they aren't looking bad. Though I'll probably dump them quick, if oil doesn't take out new high very soon.
Market can certainly go either way here. so I'm trying not to be too heavy, untill I see a good trend. Bears including myself certainly got over optimistic on the bottom, but we had a good trend going , why not go all the way? :)
I just can't be bullish. Every rally is just another short selling opportunity, no matter how high it goes :)
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