Olddog:Well a couple of things could happen but basically you're right. Since options trade on their own, let's say we get a favorable CAFC decision but no further developments in the buyout but buyout news is still pending. The value of those calls will probably increase enough to take profits and sell them and reinvest into DEC and JAN calls. Also hedging by buying some now for DEC and JAN even though paying a bit higher premium for them.
So my SEP calls could expire worthless, I lose $1200 or so but if DEC or JAN hits then I'm still way to the good.
I didn't buy August (less premium for time value so cheaper) because I'm not sure that we get the first tender by then or more news about the talks, who else is interested etc. So I wasn't sure that was enough time although that would be about a month since the first announcement and one might infer that talks had already progressed to a point that the BOD made the announcement.
So I think Sept 17 we'll know enough to make that a good bet on my part but DEC and JAN seem even surer so I'm gonna risk some on those too--which will all be good if it happens earlier too, then I'll have SEP JAN AND DEC calls all in the money!
And thanks--Good luck to us all!