Replies to post #61340 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[leon]

zeev, am i correct in assuming that because the dec. retrenchment was more prolonged/extended than 2001, you feel there is a good chance the topping process we experienced in early jan. 02 will be somewhat similarly delayed or extended this year? LEON

[libbyt]

Zeev do you still own and follow HOOK?

Is there a list of some of your "orphan value" stocks that you continue to hold?

Thanks!

[Fletch]

What to expect in tech in 2003

(FORTUNE.COM) -- Expect a desultory 2003 for the technology industry. Businesses will begin to extract more productivity gains from technology, but the hardware and software industries will not benefit accordingly. Corporate customers drive most tech spending, and they will still be thinking more about getting value out of what they've already got than spending money on new stuff. With sales growth anemic, only the strong vendors will survive. Consolidation, especially in software, will be a major trend of 2003. The recent purchases of Rational Software by IBM and Precise Software Solutions by Veritas are the tip of the iceberg. Expect also more acquisitions by cash-rich Microsoft.

Expected to do well

All is not grim, however. Here are a few companies I expect will do well in 2003:

• AMD: continues to challenge Intel with well-conceived designs for PC microprocessors.

• BEA Systems: middleware for enterprise software widely regarded as the best, despite vigorous competition from IBM.

• Borland: multi-platform application development tools are perfectly positioned.

• Dell: taking market share in every area of standardized hardware, including storage and networking.

• Logitech: unstoppable maker of consumer PC peripherals.

• Mercury Interactive: software performance measurement extracts value from what companies already have.

• Nokia: cellphones are hot and this remains the undisputed leader.

• Salesforce.com: its Net-delivered sales automation is defining a new approach. Expect an IPO this year.

• Veritas: storage software for the multi-platform future.

http://www.cnn.com/2003/TECH/ptech/01/01/fortune.ff.tech.expect/index.html

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At least there is a bright spot or two here and he likes MERQ.
Fletch

[george8]

Zeev:

A few points to add to your comparison between the last three December NAS market.
1) Dec. 2000 was still a part of clear down swing from Sep. 2000. Dec. 2001 and Dec. 2002 were, instead, part of bear market rally from Sep. 2001 and Oct. 2002 respectively.
2) Dec. 2001 was much stronger than Dec. 2002. Entire Dec. 2001 did not go lower than the fist weekly (12/7/01)low 0f 1898. First week of Dec. 2002 (12/6/02) painted a very bearish outside reversal. That week went as high as 1521, exceeding the Nov. high 1497 by 24, yet reversed back to as low as 1391, and closed the week at a very bearish 1422, 56 points below the previous week's close (1478).
3) Rest of Dec. 2002 continued to trade lower. In fact, the last trading day 12/31 went as low as 1327, and closed at 1335. Dec. 2002, losing 143 NAS points (9.6%), ranks among the worst Dec. ever.
4) I agree with you. For the bullish case, we will need volume and price to advance in a convincing manner within the first half of Jan. 2003. I think 1410 can be reached without much doubt. But overcoming 1426/1430 might require 2-3 tries.
5) For the bearish case, if volume does not come back in a hurry, the market will likely peak at around 1420 next week, and then go down to test Dec. 2002 low of 1327.

George