Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[george8]

Zeev:

A few points to add to your comparison between the last three December NAS market.
1) Dec. 2000 was still a part of clear down swing from Sep. 2000. Dec. 2001 and Dec. 2002 were, instead, part of bear market rally from Sep. 2001 and Oct. 2002 respectively.
2) Dec. 2001 was much stronger than Dec. 2002. Entire Dec. 2001 did not go lower than the fist weekly (12/7/01)low 0f 1898. First week of Dec. 2002 (12/6/02) painted a very bearish outside reversal. That week went as high as 1521, exceeding the Nov. high 1497 by 24, yet reversed back to as low as 1391, and closed the week at a very bearish 1422, 56 points below the previous week's close (1478).
3) Rest of Dec. 2002 continued to trade lower. In fact, the last trading day 12/31 went as low as 1327, and closed at 1335. Dec. 2002, losing 143 NAS points (9.6%), ranks among the worst Dec. ever.
4) I agree with you. For the bullish case, we will need volume and price to advance in a convincing manner within the first half of Jan. 2003. I think 1410 can be reached without much doubt. But overcoming 1426/1430 might require 2-3 tries.
5) For the bearish case, if volume does not come back in a hurry, the market will likely peak at around 1420 next week, and then go down to test Dec. 2002 low of 1327.

George