Replies to post #4259 on Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MNTA)

[pollyvonwog]

I have MNTA's take at 80-85m or $1.15-$1.30 range.

On a recent conference or the shareholder meeting (I forget which) CW stated m-enox's run rate was over $1b so I'm using that to assume Craig knew april and may numbers which were reflected that statement. I agree with you about destocking. Also, with the great script numbers (that you provde; thanks!) and I think $250+ is in the bag! :)

[rwwine]

At $262M, I estimate $80.3 M mL revenue, operating expenses of $24.2M (including an R&D adjustment that Rick Shea mentioned would impact income/revenue for Q2-2011), shares outstanding of 50.7 M with a resulting earnings of $1.11. ;-)

[Katsche]

Hi Rocky3,
your script # Q1: 457 T. Q2: 677 T. Increase: + 50 %.
Do you believe, that this big jump is offset by the destocking?
Thanks
Katsche

[DewDiligence]

I'll go with $1.10 (higher share count on similar sales to Q1).

The 2Q11 diluted share count for the GAAP EPS calculation will be only slightly higher than the 1Q11 count. (The difference stems from the higher average share price during 2Q11, which caused more options to become in-the-money for the EPS calculation.)

[10nisman]

I'll throw in a $245MM (down from $247MM due to destocking, but much, much less destocking than estimated by others). More importantly, what will MNTA's take be? Let's throw out some quarterly earnings estimates. Will be much easier after NVS earnings. 10n had estimated $.85-1.00 back in early May. I'll go with $1.10 (higher share count on similar sales to Q1). Still over average estimate.

My revised Q2 estimate:
Q2 mL Revenue: $215-238 million
Momenta's mL Revenue: $62.8-70.9 (net of true-up)
MNTA's Q2 EPS: $0.87-1.01

The annual mL true-up adjustment estimated to be $3-4 million will be netted against Momenta's mL Revenue and will lower EPS in the quarter by 6-8 cents. Hopefully in the Q2 press release RS decides to show EPS adjusted (EPS excluding the true-up related to prior quarters) since the majority of this true-up relates to prior quarters and there's no reason not to show the street the real Q2 normalized EPS.