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Re: Rocky3 post# 4259

Wednesday, 07/13/2011 5:24:03 PM

Wednesday, July 13, 2011 5:24:03 PM

Post# of 20689

I'll throw in a $245MM (down from $247MM due to destocking, but much, much less destocking than estimated by others). More importantly, what will MNTA's take be? Let's throw out some quarterly earnings estimates. Will be much easier after NVS earnings. 10n had estimated $.85-1.00 back in early May. I'll go with $1.10 (higher share count on similar sales to Q1). Still over average estimate.

My revised Q2 estimate:
Q2 mL Revenue: $215-238 million
Momenta's mL Revenue: $62.8-70.9 (net of true-up)
MNTA's Q2 EPS: $0.87-1.01

The annual mL true-up adjustment estimated to be $3-4 million will be netted against Momenta's mL Revenue and will lower EPS in the quarter by 6-8 cents. Hopefully in the Q2 press release RS decides to show EPS adjusted (EPS excluding the true-up related to prior quarters) since the majority of this true-up relates to prior quarters and there's no reason not to show the street the real Q2 normalized EPS.