Replies to post #60598 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[chainik]

<Despite all the saber rattling the odds of a war in the Middle east are going down IMHO>

George,

This is probably the most important point for near-term market direction. If peaceful solution is found, we may rally big time (although the rally will be short-lived).

The unilateral attack on Iraq may inflict a huge political damage to US and precipitate economic collapse. Even mentally retarded should be concerned about taking these risks. And what for? Cheap oil? - there should be easier and less risky ways to get it. Attack by Iraq on US may cripple US economy? - that's a pretty amazing idea. Out of respect for mlsoft I'll refrain from my four letter comments about politicians who make such statements.

Asylum in Russia or in China would be a beauty although right now it seems like a wild idea.

All IMO of course.

[pstuartb]

George -

Along the same lines as the Tehran Times article you posted, see this article "Belarus could offer Saddam refuge":

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,5764042%255E2703,00.html


But on the other hand, see this:


"30 Dec 2002 14:58
Belarus dismisses report it would shelter Saddam

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MOSCOW, Dec 30 (Reuters) - Belarus dismissed as conjecture on Monday a newspaper report saying Iraqi President Saddam Hussein might seek refuge in the ex-Soviet state if driven into exile.

Britain's Sunday Times newspaper reported on Sunday, after a Belarussian delegation visited Iraq, that isolated President Alexander Lukashenko could offer Saddam shelter if a U.S.-led military campaign drove him from Iraq.

Asked to comment on the Times report, presidential spokeswoman Natalya Petkevich told Reuters by telephone from Minsk: "For now there are no facts to talk about. Let conjecture be conjecture."

The West has accused Lukashenko of cracking down on opponents and stifling the media, and he is banned from visiting 14 of 15 European Union states as well as the United States.

But the leader of the opposition United Civilian Party, Anatoly Lebedko, said giving refuge to the Iraqi head could be a step too far by Belarus.

"This could only happen in one circumstance -- if Saddam came with billions packed in his suitcase," Lebedko said.

Minsk opposes any military action against Iraq and denounces what it calls U.S. aggression."

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L30191405


http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/news.asp?ArticleID=72546

[sylvester80]

<If we agree that the main objective of the United States in trying to depose
Saddam Hussein is to gain full control over Iraq's energy resources and politics
through installing a pro-American group in Baghdad, we will be inclined to
accept the fact that White House economic advisors and military strategists have
told George W. Bush that these goals are not necessarily attainable through a
bloody "red war" but rather can be accomplished through a "white battle" at a
lower cost.>

Don't see how we statements like these we are going to fix the fundamental problem in the Middle East. It's like making a whole in the water. As long as we act as an imperialist force out to get their resources, we've solved nothing IMO.

[lurqer]

white battle

In considering various outcomes to the Iraq situation, I've given a lot of weight to "abdication scenarios", because they make so much sense. I guess that's the problem. Saddam rarely takes the reasonable alternative. Rather his history is taking the worst option at the worst time. Let's all hope "this time is different".

JMO

lurqer

[Gold Investor]

Dream on George - War is imminent sad to say. In fact, not only will there be war, but it won't go as smoothly as everyone and hid brother are assuning. Sh*t hits the fan 2nd half of January. Bet on peace at your own financial detriment.