Despite all the saber rattling the odds of a war in the Middle east are going down IMHO. People should start to think about the implications for the market of a move away from war.
By Parviz Esmaeili
TEHRAN -- At a time when U.S. military activities and preparations had reached
such a level that almost all observers had started a countdown to a massive
military attack on Iraq, all of sudden unofficial reports indicate that Washington is
now following a different strategy based on a "white battle" to achieve the same
goal a "red war" could accomplish .
Reports of the past few days, particularly those with European sources, indicate
that Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein may take asylum in Russia and a
U.S.-backed group will replace him without much change in the structure of the
ruling system in Baghdad.
The remarks of former Russian prime minister Vladimir Primakov on an
unexpected visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Baghdad to meet
Saddam Hussein, the probable settling of Saddam Hussein in Russia, and the
guarantees he is bargaining for are noteworthy reports.
According to some reports, some European officials, including the German
foreign minister, in their recent meetings with Iranian officials, have stated that
the United States is not unwilling to refrain from widespread military attacks and
instead would like to resort to less costly ways to depose Saddam Hussein.
Probably the European and Russian officials have convinced Saddam to chose
between war and death or abdication and asylum.
The remarks of U.S. President George W. Bush on the eve of the New Year and
his reference to the probability of avoiding war may serve as a testimony to this
effect.
In the event of a U.S. attack on Iraq, irreparable damage would be wrought on the
U.S. and on the region and the flow of energy to Europe would be hindered.
Hence, world public opinion is increasingly opposed to such a war in which
victory could not be taken for granted.
If we agree that the main objective of the United States in trying to depose
Saddam Hussein is to gain full control over Iraq's energy resources and politics
through installing a pro-American group in Baghdad, we will be inclined to
accept the fact that White House economic advisors and military strategists have
told George W. Bush that these goals are not necessarily attainable through a
bloody "red war" but rather can be accomplished through a "white battle" at a
lower cost.
“The things that will destroy us are: politics without principle; pleasure without conscience; wealth without work; knowledge without character; business without morality; science without humanity; and worship without sacrifice.” Mahatma Gandhi
AI
