Replies to post #13447 on Mostly: Classical

[Frank Pembleton]

TECHNICALS-Forex market views and key levels

 
  
     NEW YORK, May 26 (Reuters) - Following is a selection of  
 comments from analysts on important technical developments in  
 the foreign exchange market:  
      
     SCOTT SILLER, TECHNICAL ANALYST, G7FOREX.COM  
     EURO/DOLLAR - "Bears try the downside (under $1.2535 23-May  
 low) again after failing to take out Tuesday's key $1.2630 high  
 on Wednesday, despite the break above the 5-day resistance  
 line. With due respect to the oversold read on the daily slow  
 stochastic and the early signs of bullish divergence there, we  
 can still see a probe into the $1.2505-$1.2450 region before a  
 more lasting recovery phase gets underway. Within that window  
 we watch for potential support from $1.2490-$1.2475 (61.8  
 percent of $1.1760-$1.3665/6-day bear channel base projection).  
 Near-term, the hourly slow stochastic is in oversold territory  
 for a second time today and so like idea of a $1.2475 limiting  
 the downside for now. Need to see $1.2545 intraday falling  
 resistance line overcome to raise optimism levels, but  
 ultimately above $1.2630/40 and $1.2690 to confirm a recovery  
 phase."  
     DOLLAR/YEN - "The pace of uptrend since early May low has  
 slowed, 108.30 yen capping gains on 20/23-May ahead of the drop  
 to 107.25 yen (61.8 percent of 106.60-108.30 yen) from where we  
 now try the highs again. Still looks like 108.30 yen could have  
 been the 5th and final wave up in the sequence higher from May  
 4th 104.25 yen low, which suggests an A-B-C (down-up-down) type  
 correction unfolding, however, with the market now back to  
 108.30 yen, it's tough not to invision a push above here and  
 into to 108.55-108.75 yen. Questionable whether the market can  
 achieve more than that at present, if at all, as the hourly  
 stochastic is now in overbought territory again and bearish  
 divergence is now more evident there as well. Support at  
 108.00-107.85 yen is key over the near-term, a loss here would  
 probably swing us lower again with 107.40-107.25 yen (8-day  
 rising support line May 24-25 lows) the levels to break to give  
 bears the advantage now."  
     STERLING/DOLLAR - "After a sharp impulsive $1.8250-$1.8335  
 rally on Wednesday and what looked to be a short-term bullish  
 triangle for an extension to $1.8355/65, cable fell out of bed  
 again. Still have to be aware of the deep oversold reading on  
 the daily slow stochastic and the bullish divergence that is  
 developing there. However, with the bear trend dominant, we may  
 still see a test of the $1.8185 5-month bear channel base  
 projection or the 12-month rising support line near $1.8170  
 before a more significant recovery phase gets underway.  
 Near-term resistance is found at $1.8285. Need above there to  
 lighten the bearish mood, above $1.8315-$1.8335 and ultimately  
 $1.8355 to confirm a recovery."  
  
     TECHNICAL ANALYSTS, RABOBANK  
     EURO/DOLLAR - "Despite a higher euro yesterday, the pair  
 has not triggered a countertrend move as it remained below the  
 previous day's price high. The failure of market participants  
 to pick up oversold euros doesn't bode well for the near  
 future. Technical risks are still skewed to the downside. Below  
 $1.2535, $1.2460 is next in line. If the market is serious in  
 ending this one-way U.S. dollar march it needs to overcome  
 $1.2690, a local rally high. Above that, several overhead  
 resistance markers make any rally attempt into an uphill battle  
 for the euro. All in all, the overall trend still slopes down  
 and is ultimately expected to see fresh year-to-date lows."  
     EURO/NORWEGIAN KRONE - "The sometimes dormant Norwegian  
 krone has woken up in fashion. The pair has plummeted below key  
 8.07 support. The latter level has operated as a platform for  
 euro buyers in the last few years. The fact that 8.07 couldn't  
 lure euro enthusiast to the market place this time around can't  
 be ignored. The long-term technical outlook for the euro has  
 weakened considerably. The break into fresh 2-year lows is  
 expected to continue for some time to come. Long term targets  
 for such a move are seen around 7.75. On a short notice, the  
 enclosed support levels are not going to turn the tide but may  
 provide a countertrend ripple. Such a ripple will likely find  
 fresh selling efforts around 8.07."  
  
 Currency bid prices at 10:40 a.m. EDT  (1440 GMT). All data  
 taken from Reuters calculated from the levels at 4:30 p.m. EDT   
 (2030 GMT) in the previous New York session.  
  
                       Last   US Close  %       YTD      2004  
                              25 May.   Change  %Change  Close  
 -------------------------------------------------------------  
 Euro/dlr   <EUR=>    1.2518   1.2602   -0.67   -7.67   1.3558  
 Dlr/yen    <JPY=>    108.10   107.68   +0.39   +5.51   102.45  
 Euro/yen   <EURJPY=> 135.34   135.72   -0.28   -2.55   138.88  
 Dlr/swiss  <CHF=>    1.2356   1.2260   +0.78   +8.57   1.1380  
 Stg/dlr    <GBP=>    1.8218   1.8315   -0.53   -5.04   1.9184  
 Dlr/cad    <CAD=>    1.2679   1.2630   +0.39   +5.41   1.2028  
 Aus/dlr    <AUD=>    0.7599   0.7623   -0.31   -2.81   0.7819  
 Euro/swiss <EURCHF=> 1.5471   1.5458   +0.08   +0.03   1.5466  
 Euro/stg   <EURGBP=> 0.6870   0.6877   -0.10   -2.82   0.7069