Replies to post #13468 on Mostly: Classical

[Frank Pembleton]

TECHNICALS-Forex market views and key levels

 
  
     NEW YORK, July 8 (Reuters) - Following is a selection of  
 comments from analysts on important technical developments in  
 the foreign exchange market:  
      
     TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM, ACM-REFCO  
     EURO/DOLLAR - "Truly amazed by the fact that we got  
 absolutely no spill-over effect from the sharp cable drop  
 yesterday. The euro held support levels and rose to $1.2040 in  
 a rash move to test the medium-term resistance line. Today  
 support rose to $1.1935 and it's got to hold the level...to  
 return to that same resistance at $1.2025 today. The week had  
 opened at $1.1935 on Monday, a weekly close above that leaves  
 us with a good chance to gather more strength next week, if  
 below we will start next week bearish."  
     STERLING/DOLLAR - "Low of $1.7405 shortly after the bomb  
 blasts, after some initial swing backs and hectic trading we  
 settled underneath $1.7440. We maintain my view for cable to  
 correct upwards, now even more so as disaster-reactions are  
 often reversed quickly as soon as the situation calms and  
 confidence returns. Today initial resistance at $1.7435, beyond  
 that lots of room to expand to $1.7510 or as high as  
 $1.7600....(With $1.74 giving way,) support lies at $1.7350.  
 Ending the week that low may see it continue towards $1.70 in  
 the early part of next week."  
     DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC - "In moments of heat, the Swiss franc  
 continues to attract save-haven buyers and the dollar crashed  
 to 1.2865 francs, that's still a key support area. Starting the  
 day at 1.2985, we have clearly broken this week's rising  
 channel, its trend-line at 1.3050 acts as a  
 resistance...Immediate support at 1.2970, breaking that should  
 see it fall back to 1.2860. On top, closing the week above  
 1.3075 is bullish."  
      
     SCOTT SILLER, TECHNICAL ANALYST, G7FOREX.COM  
     EURO/DOLLAR - "Thursday's sharp spike higher (on heels of  
 attacks on London) held below the 3-week bear channel top at  
 $1.2060 (today at $1.2045), $1.2040 capping gains ahead of the  
 latest test of $1.1875 (just above the July 5th 1870 low). The  
 daily MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram  
 appears to be on the verge of a bearish cross again, suggesting  
 risk of an eventual drop below $1.1870 and a test of  
 $1.1815/20, the current 3-week bear channel base. Near-term,  
 however, the bounce from $1.1875 tests above $1.1940-$1.1960 as  
 the hourly slow stochastic turns up from oversold and the  
 hourly MACD histogram looks to cross above the zero line  
 (bullish cross), so wouldn't rule out a test higher towards  
 $1.1980-$1.2005 (61.8 percent and 76.4 percent retrace levels)  
 ahead of a fresh attempt lower."  
     DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC - "Rally from Thursday's 1.2845-franc  
 spike low tested just above the July 5th 1.3070 high before  
 pulling back hard. Possible that losses are corrective towards  
 1.2960-1.2930, the 50 percent and 61.8 percent retrace levels,  
 though should allow for a 76.4 percent retrace at 1.2900. Below  
 1.2900 and it would appear that a broad range is unfolding and  
 we could see levels closer to 1.2845 again. Below 1.2845-1.2820  
 and bulls lose the battle with risk then to an initial  
 1.2760."  
     EURO/YEN - "Still needs a break above 134.45/50 yen to firm  
 potential for an eventual run higher towards 135.00-135.70  
 rise. In the meantime, we seem to be consolidating above  
 133.45, but wouldn't rule out a deeper slide to 133.20/25  
 before a fresh attempt at a bullish break-out. Under 133.20 and  
 132.90/95 could come into play."  
      
 Currency bid prices at 11:08 am EDT (1508 GMT). All data taken  
 from Reuters calculated from the levels at 4:30 p.m. (2030 GMT)  
 in the previous New York session.  
  
                       Last   US Close  %       YTD      2004  
                              07 July   Change  %Change  Close  
 -------------------------------------------------------------  
 Euro/dlr   <EUR=>    1.1936   1.1951   -0.13  -11.96   1.3558  
 Dlr/yen    <JPY=>    112.16   111.99   +0.15   +9.48   102.45  
 Euro/yen   <EURJPY=> 133.89   133.92   -0.02   -3.59   138.88  
 Dlr/swiss  <CHF=>    1.3014   1.2978   +0.28  +14.36   1.1380  
 Stg/dlr    <GBP=>    1.7367   1.7443   -0.44   -9.47   1.9184  
 Dlr/cad    <CAD=>    1.2194   1.2282   -0.72   +1.38   1.2028  
 Aus/dlr    <AUD=>    0.7420   0.7395   +0.34   -5.10   0.7819  
 Euro/swiss <EURCHF=> 1.5535   1.5516   +0.12   +0.45   1.5466  
 Euro/stg   <EURGBP=> 0.6869   0.6851   +0.26   -2.83   0.7069