Replies to post #121546 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Not surprising insofar as VX-222 (a non-nuke) has been a huge disappointment.

[mcbio]

VRTX licenses a pair of pre-clinical nucleotides

I read no impact on VRUS into this news given that VRTX probably didn't want to cough up the amount of money that VRUS would have demanded and/or VRUS didn't want to partner with VRTX since VRUS can pretty much pick and choose who they want to partner with, if they want to partner at all.

However, I view this news as bearish for IDIX and INHX, since both have nukes that are further along than the ones VRTX licensed today.

[ghmm]

I am just reading the PR now and Alios is Larry Blatt's company! He was at InterMune for quite some time. As an aside I believe Intermune had a poster a while back and Dan Welch had commented about a modest Polymerase program some time ago.

[DewDiligence]

Re: HCV partnerships

The $1.5B of total “biobucks” in the VRTX-Alios deal warrants an update of the table in #msg-40127105 with a new column for total biobucks (rather than just up-front cash). The Roche-VRUS deal for RG7128 also has to be added to the table.

[DewDiligence]

Economics of HCV Partnerships

This table does not purport to be exhaustive. Items are listed
in descending order of biobucks; those shown in red resulted
in an eventual buyout of the licensor by the licensee.

 
                                           ------$ Mln------ 
 Licensor Licensee Product   Phase  Class  Up-front Biobucks   Date  iHub reference 
 Alios    VRTX     ALS-2200    pc    nuke      60    1,475     6/11  #msg-64166913 
 ANDS     NVS      ANA975       1    TLR7      20      570     2/05  #msg-6545305 
 IDIX     NVS      NM283        2    nuke     100‡     555‡    3/06  #msg-10407463 
 HGSI     NVS      Albuferon    2    ifn       45      553     6/06  #msg-11451787 
 VRTX     JNJ      Telaprevir   2     PI      165*     545*    6/06  #msg-11830934 
 ZGEN     BMY      Lambda       1    ifn      105      535     1/09  #msg-34768182 
 ITMN     Roche    ITMN-191    pc     PI       60      530    10/06  #msg-14356850 
 LG Ltd   GILD     LB84451      2     CI       20      202    11/07  #msg-24337514 
 Genelabs GSK      unnamed     pc     NN       13      188     5/06  #msg-11431616 
 VRTX     Mitsbshi Telaprevir   3     PI      105†     170†    7/09  #msg-40126798 
 VRUS     Roche    RG7128      pc    nuke      10      168    10/04  n/a 
 Benitec  PFE      TT-033      pc    RNAi      n/a     145     1/08  #msg-25817504 
 Medivir  JNJ      TMC435      pc     PI       10      n/a    11/04  n/a  
    
 *For rights in Europe, South America, Australia, and the Middle East.  
 †For rights in Japan/Asia; monetization of amended 2004 agreement.  
 ‡Includes $75M NVS paid for rights to NM283 and Telbivudine in 2003.

[DewDiligence]

VRTX reports phase-2 EoT/SVR12 data for VX-222+Incivek+ifn+ribavirin:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Interim-Data-from-Phase-2-bw-3605961900.html?x=0&.v=1

These data look ok so far, but it’s too soon to say whether including VX-222 in a 4-drug cocktail is worth the trouble.

[DewDiligence]

VRTX reports 7-day monotherapy data on ALS-2220, one of the two HCV nukes licensed from Alios BioPharma in 2011 (#msg-64166913):

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/vertex-announces-positive-results-viral-200000844.html

There was a median 4.54 log10 reduction in hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA in people with genotype 1 chronic hepatitis C who were new to treatment (n=8) after seven days of dosing with 200 mg of ALS-2200 once daily. ALS-2200 was well-tolerated in this study, and no patients discontinued due to adverse events. Based on these data, Vertex plans to begin Phase 2 studies this year of 12-week all-oral regimens including ALS-2200 in people with genotype 1 hepatitis C, pending discussions with regulatory agencies…

Four of eight patients in this dose group achieved HCV RNA levels below the limit of quantification. Based on these data, Vertex expects to conduct a study to evaluate ALS-2200 in combination with INCIVEK (telaprevir), the company’s approved protease inhibitor for people with genotype 1 hepatitis C, and a study of ALS-2200 in combination with ribavirin.

[DewDiligence]

Remember Alios? They’re among the companies with an HCV nuke in preclinical development:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/alios-biopharma-announces-upcoming-rsv-120000004.html

Presentation: Preclinical Characterization of AL-335, a Potent Uridine Based Nucleotide Polymerase Inhibitor for the Treatment of Chronic Hepatitis C

Alios is the company from whom VRTX licensed a pair of preclinical nukes in 2011 (#msg-64166913); both of them failed.