Replies to post #120852 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

What probability do you give ELN getting FDA approval for Bapi?

You asked at the right time :- ) Before I knew about the “nonlinear” reanalysis of the phase-2 data, I had pegged the probability of Bapineuzumab success in some subgroup at 15-25% (#msg-31740797). Now that I finally understand (or think I understand) what the data reanalysis entailed, I’m raising the lower and upper bounds of the range by 500 basis points each, so my new range is 20-30%. JMHO, FWIW.

p.s. ELN is no longer the operator of the Bapi program, but rather is a passive investor in the program through its JV with JNJ. PFE and JNJ are now calling the shots.