You asked at the right time :- ) Before I knew about the “nonlinear” reanalysis of the phase-2 data, I had pegged the probability of Bapineuzumab success in some subgroup at 15-25% (#msg-31740797). Now that I finally understand (or think I understand) what the data reanalysis entailed, I’m raising the lower and upper bounds of the range by 500 basis points each, so my new range is 20-30%. JMHO, FWIW.
p.s. ELN is no longer the operator of the Bapi program, but rather is a passive investor in the program through its JV with JNJ. PFE and JNJ are now calling the shots.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”
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