Replies to post #120645 on Biotech Values

[oc631]

If there is any kind of safety issue at all at any point with one of the VRUS nukes or even if it's an issue with the BMY NS5A inhibitor in the ongoing combo trial, but it can't be pinned down specifically to BMY's NS5A inhibitor, then VRUS has a long way to fall at current valuation.

These DAA trials will be remarkably revealing. On the one hand you would expect an improved safety profile once existing SOC is removed from the mixture. On the other, developers can no longer use SOC as an excuse for AE's in future DAA combinations. VRUS' dual nuke trial has an early lead on the trial pairing BMY's NS5A with PSI-7977. If there are safety issues in the latter trial the dual nuke trial can be looked at as a comparator.

I'm no longer comfy with the risk-reward given how I think a lot is already priced into the share price.

That's understandable considering what we know today. I feel I made a strong case for an early filing for PSI-7977/SOC in GT2/GT3 next year. If this happens the stock is undervalued.

[DewDiligence]

ACHN increases authorized share count from 100M-->200M:

http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1070336/000119312511162897/d8k.htm

There are currently about 58M basic shares outstanding.