...OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES...SOME STRONG AND LONG TRACKED...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...DANGEROUS FLOODING ONGOING...
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. TORNADO. RISK...SIGNIFICANT. AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. ONSET...AFTER 4 PM.
AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. RISK...CRITICAL. AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. ONSET...AFTERNOON.
FLASH FLOOD. RISK...ELEVATED. AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. ONSET...AFTERNOON.
SIGNIFICANT WINDS. RISK...LIMITED. AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. ONSET...ONGOING.
DISCUSSION... A WIDESPREAD...AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING...SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE DEVELOPING WEATHER PATTERN IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR LONG TRACK SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG OR EVEN VIOLENT TORNADOES...SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A LIMITED THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL THROUGH THE MORNING.
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME SEVERE VERY QUICKLY. FORECAST WIND PROFILES ARE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUING LATE INTO THE EVENING.
A CRITICAL FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE AREA OF HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE THE LOCATION OF A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY... WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY RESIDE OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING OVER KANSAS THIS MORNING MAY PUSH THE BOUNDARY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND IF THIS HAPPENS... THE HIGHEST RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE SHIFTED SOUTH WITH LATER UPDATES.
IN ADDITION...DANGEROUS FLOODING REMAINS ONGOING OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY. ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE FLOODING ISSUES.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR A HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF RESCUE AND RECOVERY EFFORTS.
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