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Replies to post #140883 on Tornado Alley (PROG)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html [note that Dallas-Ft. Worth now included in the primary tornado threat area] [use this link for later Day 1 Outlooks, available at 3p and 8p CDT]SPC AC 241625
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
VALID 241630Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK...AND NORTH CENTRAL
TX...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
TX...MOST OF OK...MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MO...AND NORTHWEST AR....
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID MS/OH/TN VALLEYS...INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND....
...AN INTENSE OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF KS/OK/TX...
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS AND PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO ROTATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED THIS EVENING. LATEST TCC PROFILER DATA SHOWS 90+
KNOT FLOW AT 6KM...INDICATIVE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX THAT
WILL NOSE INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE... SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH TX...OK...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KS. BY MID AFTERNOON
THE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS INTO WESTERN OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TX. STRONG HEATING AND RICH MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH
NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL YIELD AN EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 4000-4500 J/KG.
PRESENT INDICATIONS AND LATEST OPERATIONS/MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE
KS/OK DRYLINE BY MID AFTERNOON AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH A
RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. EARLY IN THE
EVENT...THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE OVER KS AS STORMS
INTERACT WITH PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND BACKED LOW LEVEL
WINDS.
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...CONTINUED HEATING AND LARGE SCALE LIFT
DUE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MAY LEAD TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO
TRACK ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA DURING THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE STRENGTHENING...WITH ALL CONDITIONS FAVORING THE POTENTIAL
FOR LONG-TRACKED STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL OK...AND CENTRAL KS.
DURING THE LATE EVENING...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL AND SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF MO/AR WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN VA.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST BY EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...40-50 KNOT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND
MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
..HART/GRAMS.. 05/24/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.htmlZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 241656
ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-250200-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
...INTENSE TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES...VERY LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS AND OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH TEXAS
ELSEWHERE...SURROUNDING THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK...SEVERE STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES.
A STRONG JET STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.
AS THIS OCCURS...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST OF THE LOW WILL
TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND OZARKS...BENEATH UNUSUALLY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE JET STREAM.
SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN AN ARC FROM CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTH TEXAS AS DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW. DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR A
RISK OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LONG-TRACK STRONG TO
VIOLENT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL AS THEY MOVE / DEVELOP
GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS...
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH TEXAS.
THE STORMS LIKELY WILL ORGANIZE INTO AN EXTENSIVE BAND THIS
EVENING...EXTENDING THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND A
FEW TORNADOES EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..HART.. 05/24/2011
$$
AI
