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Replies to post #140859 on Tornado Alley (PROG)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html [use this link for later Day 1 Outlooks, available at 11:30a, 3p and 8p CDT]SPC AC 241254
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND
KANSAS...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
FROM N TX N/NEWD INTO PARTS OF AR AND MO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
FROM S CNTRL TX THROUGH THE MID MS AND OH VLYS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND NC...
...SYNOPSIS...
...TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLNS
AND OZARKS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
POTENT UPR TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE FOUR CORNERS WILL FURTHER
STRENGTHEN AND EVOLVE INTO CLOSED LOW OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS BY THIS
EVE AS ASSOCIATED BAND OF 75 KT MID LVL FLOW SWEEPS E/NE ACROSS THE
SRN PLNS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE E INTO CNTRL KS TONIGHT/EARLY WED
AS THE SPEED MAX/VORT LOBE ROTATE NE ACROSS THE OZARKS. AT THE
SFC...LOW NOW OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES SHOULD UNDERGO SUBSTANTIAL
DEEPENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE INTO S CNTRL KS THIS EVE...AND
CONTINUES N/NE INTO CNTRL KS OVERNIGHT. IN RESPONSE...FLOW AT ALL
LVLS SHOULD SUBSTANTIALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE PLNS
AND OZARKS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED.
...SRN/CNTRL PLNS AND OZARKS LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
SETUP STILL APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SCTD STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY
ABOUT 21Z IN AREA OF STRONG SFC HEATING ALONG AND AHEAD OF DRYLINE
EXTENDING S FROM PANHANDLE SFC LOW. COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELD...DEEP EML...AND RATHER RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
ACROSS REGION WILL SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE SUPERCELLS. ARRIVAL OF
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/UVV WITH AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SHOULD FOSTER
MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF DRY LINE A BIT
LATER IN THE DAY OR BY EARLY EVE.
ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR POSSIBLE STORM
INTERFERENCE...ESPECIALLY WITH NWD EXTENT IN HIGH/MDT RISK
AREA...SETUP STILL APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST FEW LONG-LIVED
DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS. GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND
STRONG LWR TROPOSPHERIC VEERING DUE TO WWD POSITION OF SFC LOW AND
SLIGHT NEG TILT OF UPR VORT...POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST FOR
LONG-LIVED STRONG TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN CNTRL/ERN/NRN OK.
WEAK W-E BOUNDARY NOW INVOF THE RED RVR SHOULD MOVE/REDEVELOP NEWD
LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE MAY SERVE AS A SECONDARY FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND/OR ENHANCE LOW LVL HELICITY...OVER PARTS OF
CNTRL/ER OK LATER TODAY.
WITH TIME THE KS/OK/N TX STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO BROKEN LINE
SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLY A COMPLEX QLCS WITH EMBEDDED SUSTAINED
SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP RAPIDLY NE INTO PARTS
OF MO AND AR LATER THIS EVE THROUGH EARLY WED...WITH AN EXPANDING
THREAT FOR DMGG WIND IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUING RISK FOR
HAIL/TORNADOES. A PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY...OR PERHAPS NEW
STORMS...MAY AFFECT THE LWR OH VLY REGION BY 12Z WED.
IN THE NEAR TERM...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MCS WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND
POSSIBLY LOCALLY DMGG WIND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E TO ESE ACROSS
CNTRL KS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS FEATURE MAY SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN CNTRL/ERN KS LATER TODAY.
...CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO VA/NC NOW THROUGH THIS AFTN...
ONGOING LOOSELY-ORGANIZED MCS NOW OVER ERN KY/TN APPEARS TO BE
SUPPORTED IN PART BY UPR IMPULSE THAT CROSSED THE SRN PLNS
YESTERDAY. AS THE IMPULSE CONTINUES EWD AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF IT...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A N-S ORIENTED FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS.
STRENGTH OF UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD AND STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES
PER GSO 12Z SOUNDING SUGGEST GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR DMGG WIND. OTHER
STRONG/SVR STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE MCS ALONG LEE TROUGH IN SE
VA/ERN NC.
...OH VLY TO MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTN...
ONGOING SHOWERS/SCTD TSTMS MAY BE JOINED POCKETS OF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ERN CANADIAN UPR TROUGH. WHILE THE BELT OF
STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN S OF THE OH RVR...
AMPLE FLOW WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS THAT MAY POSE A THREAT
FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND SVR HAIL.
..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 05/24/2011
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AI
