Replies to post #140851 on Tornado Alley (PROG)

[F6]

Public Severe Weather Outlook

    ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL 
    WOUS40 KWNS 240919 
    ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-241800- 
     
    PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK   
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 
    0419 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011 
     
    ...TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL 
    PLAINS AND OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY... 
     
    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE 
    DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND 
    DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND 
    OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 
     
    THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE 
     
           WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS 
           CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS 
           WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI 
           CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA 
           NORTH TEXAS 
     
    ELSEWHERE...SURROUNDING THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK...SEVERE STORMS 
    ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE MID 
    MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND 
    STATES. 
     
    A STRONG JET STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS 
    WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...AND ACROSS THE 
    SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...BEFORE REACHING THE OZARKS EARLY 
    WEDNESDAY. 
     
    AS THIS OCCURS...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE 
    NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. 
     
    STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST OF THE LOW WILL 
    TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE 
    PLAINS AND OZARKS...BENEATH UNUSUALLY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 
    WINDS IN THE JET STREAM. 
     
    SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
    IN AN ARC FROM CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA 
    INTO NORTH TEXAS AS DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES THE REGION 
    AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW. 
     
    CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE STORMS TO ASSUME 
    STRONG...SUSTAINED ROTATION...AND TO PRODUCE POSSIBLY VIOLENT 
    TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL AS THEY MOVE / DEVELOP GENERALLY 
    NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. 
     
    THE STORMS LIKELY WILL ORGANIZE INTO AN EXTENSIVE BAND THIS 
    EVENING...EXTENDING THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND A 
    FEW TORNADOES EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI 
    BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. 
     
    STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY 
    VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO 
    REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO 
    RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE 
    WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY. 
     
    ..CORFIDI.. 05/24/2011 
     
    $$

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html

sounds like the high and moderate risk areas shown in the initial Day 1 outlook (in the post to which this is a reply) will be expanded significantly north, east and south in the 1300Z (8a CDT) updated Day 1 outlook -- this is a quite classic setup right in the world's bullseye for greatest number of strong/violent tornadoes per square mile per year -- may luck do a better job today of keeping the strong/violent tornadoes that will occur out of developed areas -- this is another day to get in touch with family and friends in the high/moderate risk areas and relay the message "today, make sure to stay informed on the latest watches and warnings, and just get it together and head straight to good shelter if in particular a tornado warning is issued" -- . . .