Replies to post #4329 on Your Economy (No Politics) (YE1)

[Koikaze]

OOOoooo, you write good stuff.

On the economy: This week's Barron's makes the point that we may be on the verge of another Long Term Capital Management disaster. Do you think that's the case, and is it imminent?

On helping ourselves: Thanks for a wonderful essay and for the suggestions for contacting those who are supposed to represent our interests. I agree that it is the best thing to do, even though my own experience has been less productive than yours. I also think we should bend our minds and our efforts to finding a better way to select those who represent us.

Fred

[otraque]

Thanks as always for your Update,BW.
I note this <<Equity Fund inflows increased last week by $4.4 Bln with most finding its way into the market via ETF's>>
This i just note i could rap about this for a long time:)
The explosion of the % of money that go into and out of ETFs is one of the factors in the "Metamorphosis" going on in market dynamics.
Hedging is major in various ETFs.
I won't burn out my brain cells rapping(what few i have left), the huge hedging factor has set up a mechanism for boom/bust cycles happening more frequently, imho.
At anytime that the Big Money hedgers decide to sell into their short positions you go into a bust cycle.
The ETFers big money players(often given over to being computer controlled) do not believe in fundamentals of individual stocks but only in momentum such IF a reversal starts a down trend it can last up to 2 years.
What i am confronted with here is whether this reversal forming now will realize itself or is there to be another bullside run.
The weekly NDX has had a slight cross of 17ema below 43ema, this , ironically, can be a signal for a prolonged down trend or the point for a strong rally---last year the 17/43 touched but didn't cross at rally time.
We now have just a slight crossing so can't be viewed as a confirmation--the cautious such as i remain watching this situation intently. Thanks again Bullwinkle for your work, it is greatly appreciated by i.:)

[Bullwinkle]

~:~:~Market Trend Update for the Week Ahead~:~:~


NOTE: There will not be an update this week.

My nephew got married yesterday. It was an all day outdoor event and was a heck of a lot of fun... Today I am leaving for a Las Vegas vacation and will not be back until Thursday the 28th. So unfortunately I have not been able to find the time to do much posting let alone sit down and give my usual in depth market update, but next weekend I will get back to business.

Until then and just as a brief outlook I expect more of the same range bound volatility with the ranges having been stretched a bit by short covering last week... While we have slightly exceeded my previously outlined ranges there is still a considerable amount of resistance above and all of the indices are overbought and in the process of testing these resistance areas now. I doubt we go much higher from here before we see the overall downward trend resume...

Have a great week!!!