Replies to post #120292 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Does anyone here care to proffer an opinion on ATN-103? Is my reading of Ablynx’s PR in #msg-63230818 unduly skeptical? T.i.a.

I agree with your skeptical take, particularly as it relates to the following language from the PR that you bolded: "Pfizer have now confirmed that clinical proof-of-concept has been achieved and they are now engaged in a full technical, clinical and commercial evaluation to determine whether and how to take ATN-103 forward."

Ablynx doesn't exactly sound too confident in the latter part of that quote do they? Now that PoC has been achieved, PFE still has to make a determination whether or not they want to take the program forward? That's probably not surprising is it given that this program will have to compete with all of the TNF-alpha biologic drugs on the market, the oral drug(s) possibly coming to market soon from the likes of PFE, AZN/RIGL, ABT/INCY, along with the threat a little further down the road from generic biologics? I wonder even how differentiated this Ablynx drug is from all of this competition in terms of efficacy/safety, if at all.

[biomaven0]

Is my reading of Ablynx’s PR in #msg-63230818 unduly skeptical?

Maybe - after all this is going to be Pfizer's call, so Ablynx likely couldn't say anything more positive than they did. On the other hand, the mention of commercial prospects might be a signal - it's not as if they needed to mention that. So could be preparing the ground for why this program won't be taken forward.

Also on the bearish side, they only got significance at the highest dose tested, this is already a very crowded space and I don't see why nanobodies would be advantageous in this particular application. (As I understand it, they are smaller than traditional antibodies, which might help in something like an anti-tumor application, but here the TNF is circulating).

Peter