Replies to post #120233 on Biotech Values

[investorgold2002]

I believe they were 45% of the overall market when they were 70% of retail ???

Now you are saying they are 85% of retail in April ?

wasn't retail 30% and GPO 70% of the total market

[Double_Bagel]

Thanks. Yes, but, I think they cautioned analysts not to raise their estimates for this quarter as they are running close to capacity. So, assuming that there is no pickup in the hospital segment, this pickup in the retail segment is surely going to stretch their supply chain, isn't it? In the first quarter they had 125+140+190=455k scripts. In April alone they have 212k scripts. Now the last week of March / first week of April had 52k (reported 4/1 in Rocky's email). So, I will just round up 1st quarter numbers to 455k + 45k = 500k. April will then be 212k + 7k = 219k. So, if we assume that they don't get any more than 85% of the retail market, you are looking at least at 660k scripts for this quarter or more (with an extra day in the quarter).

Were they just saying that they were at full capacity because Sanofi might be listening? Maybe they also said this to keep the analysts from raising their estimates for this quarter? Surely, if supply is not an issue, this 160k additional scripts could easily add another 25c to the quarter, making it close to $1.40?

Avg Wkly Scripts Share of
Month Branded Generic Generic
0411 9,213 53,041 85.2%
0311 12,767 48,278 79.1%
0211 22,769 35,025 60.6%
0111 25,279 31,124 55.2%

MNTA keeps mentioning that they are running at full capacity and can't capture more than 45% to 50% of the market. But they clearly are by these numbers below.

------------------
The 45-50% range refers to the entire market, i.e. the sum of the hospital and retail segments; the 85% figure in the table in #msg-63248831 refers to the retail segment only.