IMO, there are two opposite trends fighting each other out in the market: -on the negative side: the tech incumbents' business models are being disrupted causing their CAPs to erode gradually. -on the positive side: that disruption is caused by new emerging players
Near term, I have no idea if the positive will outweigh the negative...hence the difficulty in forecasting the market. Yet long term (2-3 years) I'm confident the positive will outweigh the market