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geopressure

04/14/11 8:09 AM

#127 RE: cflo92 #125

1] I don't know too much about the board... DUNR has had a rocky past and a number of investors lost a lot of cash in 2008 when the price of oil dropped from $150/barrel to $30/barrel.

2] Because DUNR owned the lease above the salt dome, Repsol couldn't drill without purchasing the rights of forming a JV with DUNR. Repsol is paying for the project and DUNR is getting 15% of production until Repsol breaks even. From then on, DUNR will get 26% of production. DUNR was simply in the right place at the right time.

3] The presentation was a Noble presentation, but Noble targets very similar plays (Sub-salt & Miocene Aged Sands). Sorry I wasn't clear, but this was to let you know that the estimated 133 million bbls of oil is quite possible. Also, Noble has experienced 50/50 success while drilling sub-salt wells. I feel that Repsol's odds are higher than 50/50. They are a number of technical aspects regarding the geology that suggest to me that the oil is there. Unfortunately, I don't think that I could explain these factors without writing a dissertation. Try this link for more information:
http://www.duneenergy.com/operations_garden_island.html

4] DUNR, much like MNLU has unintentionally burned a lot of investors in the past. The downturn that took place in 2008 hit both companies really hard. DUNR is swimming in debt, their backs are against the wall, this well will answer all of their prayers. It is very rare to find a company with a Market Cap of only $39 million, and over a 50% chance of making well that their portion of the production will be worth over $3 Billion at $90/bbl oil. Also, we will not have to wait more than a few weeks before they announce results - DUNR has stated in a previous press release that the results will announced in May or June.

5] Infrastructure is in place, this well will be producing before the year's end. This play is totally different from MNLU's pay zone. Using 3-D seismic, Repsol has already determined the volume of the potential reservoir, hence the 133 million barrel figure. When the well that is being drilled now penetrates the Miocene Sands and verifies the presence of hydrocarbons, the stock price will quadruple or more over night, and I intend to sell and buy more MNLU. I do not plan on sticking with this stock for the long haul, only until we get the results of this well. This well is literally 1,000 times bigger than MNLU's well. There is a great contrast between onshore and offshore wells, with offshore wells being much, much more productive... Look at BP's well that spewed 100,000 barrels of oil per day for months without slowing down. Most land wells don't produce this much oil in a year...

Note... The other smaller well that DUNR is drilling in Garden Island Bay is not important, thougb it turns out that they hit oil, but didn't get to log it before they had to run casing... This well is nothing compared to the big well that Repsol is drilling.

Good luck...