Replies to post #118012 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

So the large number of oncology drugs in trials is not overly concerning for me.

I would stop short of making such an assertion. The relevant comparison, IMO, is not between the number of cancer-drug candidates and the number of drug candidates in some other medical indication, but rather is the comparison between the number of cancer-drug candidates today and the number of cancer-drug candidates a few years ago.

As the number of cancer-drug candidates climbs ever higher, the probability that an arbitrary candidate will become a big-selling drug must necessarily decline. From a strictly mathematical standpoint, the ballooning number of cancer-drug candidates is bearish in the aggregate for investors in biotech companies that are focused entirely in this area.