I would stop short of making such an assertion. The relevant comparison, IMO, is not between the number of cancer-drug candidates and the number of drug candidates in some other medical indication, but rather is the comparison between the number of cancer-drug candidates today and the number of cancer-drug candidates a few years ago.
As the number of cancer-drug candidates climbs ever higher, the probability that an arbitrary candidate will become a big-selling drug must necessarily decline. From a strictly mathematical standpoint, the ballooning number of cancer-drug candidates is bearish in the aggregate for investors in biotech companies that are focused entirely in this area.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”
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