Replies to post #118007 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Hence, it makes perfect sense for there to be a big bolus of HCV drug candidates in the clinic right now, before the one-time window of opportunity closes.

Good point about the limited window of opportunity. I imagine the smaller HCV-focused companies, such as ACHN, are going to have to broaden their horizons beyond HCV well before the window of opportunity closes if they hope to sustain themselves longer-term. For ACHN, I would assume they will start to reinvest in their anti-bacterial program down the road if they have success on the HCV front.

[oc631]

Since few new patients are becoming infected with HCV, the pool of patients to be treated will be much smaller in 10 years than it is today.

The growth number of HCV patients in the undeveloped world will exceed the number that receive treatment over the next 10 years IMO. China, India, and SE Asia will be particularly strong and profitable HCV drug markets if economic growth projections are maintained and intellectual property rights are respected.

[biomaven0]

It’s an apples-to-oranges comparison

I completely agree. My point is that the "big picture" investment opportunity for the "median" oncology drug is at least as good as that for the median HCV drug. So the large number of oncology drugs in trials is not overly concerning for me.

Peter