Replies to post #117998 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Surely the same can be said of HCV drugs - in that space there will be only a handful of ultimate winners, while in oncology there will likely be several dozen.

I think there will likely be several ultimate winners in each of the key HCV classes (PI, nuke, NS5A) plus something like Lambda if interferon ends up remaining in the equation. I think we can then look within each of those HCV classes to see who is best positioned, notwithstanding the fact that it's still early days and things will certainly change.

[DewDiligence]

It’s an apples-to-oranges comparison, as mcbio noted. In addition to the fact that cancer consists of manifold diseases while HCV is only one, a second key distinction is that the business opportunity for HCV drugs to generate very large sales is short-lived.

Since few new patients are becoming infected with HCV, the pool of patients to be treated will be much smaller in 10 years than it is today. Hence, it makes perfect sense for there to be a big bolus of HCV drug candidates in the clinic right now, before the one-time window of opportunity closes.