Re: GTCB cash burn
>>the projected '05 burn rate includes partner money… I would hesitate to project subsequent q's based on what will probably be a one-time up-front.<<
Yes, the projected 2005 cash burn of $20M includes projected revenue of $11.5M, of which $1.3M was booked in Q1, leaving $10.2M for the rest of the year. I’m guessing that about $3.5M of this $10.2 represents anticipated up-front money from a European ATryn partner. The remaining revenue comes from license fees and reimbursement by existing partners for development costs; these revenue sources, though somewhat lumpy, are ongoing rather than one-off.
To be conservative, we can exclude the $3.5M revenue above and recalculate the burn rate without it. The burn for Q2-Q4 of 2005 then becomes 20-6.6+3.5=$16.9M, approximately $5.6M per quarter. Under these assumptions, the existing cash balance of $27.8M still lasts 27.8/5.6=5.0 quarters.
>>As an additional comment, does the projected amount not seem on the small side? Unless they are not talking about ATryn.<<
No, the projected burn does not strike me as too small. There are no significant European ATryn costs for 2005 other than a planned $5M for manufacturing scale-up, and the U.S. ATryn trial will be low-budget because only 17 new patients need to be treated. The “prospective historical” control arm in the U.S. will incur some costs, but not nearly as much as actual patients.
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