Re: GTCB cash burn
>>the projected '05 burn rate includes partner money… I would hesitate to project subsequent q's based on what will probably be a one-time up-front.<<
Yes, the projected 2005 cash burn of $20M includes projected revenue of $11.5M, of which $1.3M was booked in Q1, leaving $10.2M for the rest of the year. I’m guessing that about $3.5M of this $10.2 represents anticipated up-front money from a European ATryn partner. The remaining revenue comes from license fees and reimbursement by existing partners for development costs; these revenue sources, though somewhat lumpy, are ongoing rather than one-off.
To be conservative, we can exclude the $3.5M revenue above and recalculate the burn rate without it. The burn for Q2-Q4 of 2005 then becomes 20-6.6+3.5=$16.9M, approximately $5.6M per quarter. Under these assumptions, the existing cash balance of $27.8M still lasts 27.8/5.6=5.0 quarters.
>>As an additional comment, does the projected amount not seem on the small side? Unless they are not talking about ATryn.<<
No, the projected burn does not strike me as too small. There are no significant European ATryn costs for 2005 other than a planned $5M for manufacturing scale-up, and the U.S. ATryn trial will be low-budget because only 17 new patients need to be treated. The “prospective historical” control arm in the U.S. will incur some costs, but not nearly as much as actual patients.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
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