Replies to post #117711 on Biotech Values

[iwfal]

i think 3DAAs are 1.5-2 years behind 2DAAs, so i was really implying they will enter the clinic in a year

I would speculate that they are at least 2.5 years behind 2DAA plus SOC and potentially 3 or 4 years behind - unless it is BMY, in which case I would guess your 1.5-2 years. My reasoning is:

a) For all 3DAA combos non-BMY companies will probably first need to get 2 drug combo SVR data, then add the third. Even if the next round of 2DAA combos are successful (far from a given the success rate to date) that will still take time before they can even start the 3DAA.

b) There is a reasonable chance that the 3DAA combo will require more characterization than 2DAA plus SOC. More protocol tweaking. E.g. the breakthrough-after-RVR data in the BMY 2DAA trial is definitely not something seen in protocols with inf and rib. I don't know what that protocol tweaking might look like, but if it does happen it will certainly cause delay.

i'm not sure BMY will necessarily have as big a lead as you think if companies start increasing collaborations like the one BMY and VRUS are doing, but time will tell

No doubt there will be more collaborations - but breaking down corporate firewalls, agreeing on a protocols, ... is generally a substantially more time consuming process than something entirely in house.