Actually, the Dec 2001 forecast for 2002 had even more "peaks and valleys", it had a peak early in January (the best cl as far as price and timing, 2123 in the first half of Jnauary vs 2098 on 1/9 the actual), then it had a spring double top (which turned out to be much weaker than forecasted, but structurally and temporally correct), and then the disastrous nassacre from mid May to early July, which was on the spot as far as the start (and extent after correction for the lower spring peaks), but too early on its end game by a solid two maybe three weeks, instead of 7/2 it was 7/23.).
As for the macroeconomics, political and liquiditiy input, I hope to be able to provide an "essay" on the basis for the 2003 forecast by late December (as I have done now for 2000, 2001 and 2002 so far). Because this work is not complete yet (and some data are still missing), the scenario presented earlier is quite tentative.
Zeev
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