Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Sir Realist]

Wow, Zeev. Over a multi-month period, that's the largest collection of peaks and valleys I can recall you making within a 6 month window.

My models have largely been based on technical and historical patterns, adjusted for economic data as it comes in. I've gathered, from your observations over the past few years, that your models factor in some macro-econodata, based on your considerably longer experience with the stockmarkets.

I don't want to be presumptuous and ask you to reveal the formula of the larger models you've constructed with such a large degree of success. But I retain a high respect for your perceptions and skills, and do have a few specific questions.

-- Of the macro economic data, nationally or globally, are there a few that stand out as the most critical that you feel all traders/investors should pay close attention to?

-- Since a great amount of economic data reflects what just happened, as opposed to what will happen, are there any reliable forecasters that merit extra attention, such as a particular central bank or economic school of thought that are worth studying the pronouncements thereof?

-- Considering the shift from a mostly industrial based economy to a services/IT economy (with a substantial farming out of the old industrial sector to other countries, certain data seemingly becomes less relevant, such as this: http://www.economagic.com/gif/g1202240128021919193641974840784.gif
and this:
http://www.economagic.com/gif/g1202240128021857536454064403772.gif
and this:
http://www.economagic.com/gif/g120224012802190957364574505840539.gif
Is there some substantive way to project such usage? Is it based more on population growth than type of economy?

--What stimuli do you see causing so many peaks and valleys within the next six months? The Middle East/Iraq? Elliot waves?

Thanks for any insights you can provide. Btw, my nominal dates for the 1600+ peak is 1/30 and for the mid-2003 low, it's 6/24, so our different methods are not significantly far apart on those two key points.

-Kevin