Various themes have dominated the markets. Massive deficits, continued under-employment, oil, fraud, gov spending, etc.
The "next big thing" will be the FED. If they blink and slow the rate increases, the markets will immediately surge upwards. Overwhelming the current wall of worry. Cramer believes the FED will blink.
If they do the right thing and try to contain inflation and the housing bubble by raising rates, the markets will continue to sink and (real) unemployment will rise. Just about always have....
It is all about the FED now.......IMHO. The wall of worry or earnings will not matter for a while.
I do not know which the FED will do, but I believe Cramer has nailed the next big thing.....
RE: Too simple - FED has that much control !!! bear_withme
NEW 4/17/2005 2:24:56 PM Post Your Reply
You think FED has everything in the palm of their hand ? They have that much control ?
RE: Why bubles & bursts are getting bigger ? bear_withme
NEW 4/17/2005 2:27:25 PM Post Your Reply
If they have that much control, why are bubbles and the subsequent Bust are getting bigger each time ?
RE: FWIW - I agree with Cramer on the future kahunabear
NEW 4/17/2005 3:08:54 PM Post Your Reply
I think if they fed stops raising it just shows panic that the economy is failing again and they never really could get it back on track. Not only that. It shows they have no tools left. Check mate.
RE: FWIW me thinks Okie
NEW 4/17/2005 3:23:14 PM Post Your Reply
Rates are still only 2/3 of norm, most especially noteworthy in view of the decline in the purchasing power of the paper money.
Seems to me there are too many catch 22, damned if you do...damned if you don't, short term correction death traps, bad credit, geo political and trade situations to make sound "guesstimates".
In a world being dominated by CBs and with the mega corps corrupting and directing our gov't as they methodically destroy the middle class, I think it is impossible to predict the outcome.
It may be that Feds can only cause more problems, I am not sure they can cure/solve anything now.
The "tail is about to wag the dog".
RE: FWIW - I agree with Cramer on the future Mr. Moto
NEW 4/17/2005 3:25:08 PM Post Your Reply
It's a long and running battle, Q, for stock market bears. And, I agree with you. Although there is recent and good evidence of a slight shift in the trend sentiment of institutional investors, Alan Greenspan's well-deserved reputation for creating a party atmosphere can not be ignored. The major stock indexes would certainly greet a change in monetary policy with substantial enthusiasm. I wouldn't expect, however, the Fed will provide any indication whatsoever of an ease in policy until the next actual announcement of the FOMC on May 3. We might also expect the obligatory run-up in share prices into that meeting.
It seems, too, the Administration is indeed displaying signs of panic as it must realize the standard pool of reflationary measures is somewhat shallow at this point. Hence, the re-emergence of political pressure for a renminbi revaluation and cries for other of the major developed economies to reflate. However, anyone expecting that a weaker renminbi will provide any sort of significant fix for the U.S. employment situation is highly deluded.
Much as predicted, we saw the Treasury Department on Friday furnishing the commercial banks with $13 billion from income tax revenues. But, as also stated previously, it's a temporary action; and a renewed flow of receipts is not due intil mid-June.
The last 5-yr auction was also not very well subscribed by other central banks. So, we still may have a lingering dollar problem.
It may be important to note the confluence of events that permitted a resolution to a falling dollar exchage rate ten years ago: the Fed decreasing the interbank overnight rate and the concomitant surge in share prices; the de facto decrease in the bank reserve requirement; expansion of commercial bank credit and subsequent explosion in the money supply. All the while, significant trouble was brewing in East Asia -- Japan pulling lines of commercial credit to the region and sundry other circumstances that led ultimately to capital flight from the Western Pacific Rim, a substantial amount of which landed in USD-based investment.
Still, some of the opportunities available in circumstances as they existed ten years ago are no longer present; which pretty much leaves the Fed and its central bank partners as primary dollar support, when needed. Myself, I do not prefer to rely on a one-trick pony and the Fed's bubble-blowing apparatus to ensure the success of my intermediate- and long-term investment goals. So, for me, it has for a time been pretty much a matter of tweaking my hedges on a quarterly basis around a net short position.
Yes, it's a tough row to hoe for market bears. The total of commercial and industrial credit is moving shallowly higher. Money supply growth is erratic, and by no menas high. Worldwide economic growth has softened noticeably. The manufacturing and service sectors of the U.S. economy remain, by all reports (e.g. ISM and Fed regional surveys), under the pressure of higher prices; but there is some success in passing on the price increases. And, again, by the same reports, the employment outloook is not good.
Consumer sentiment has also fallen hard of late. Yet, I am unable to detect in the money supply the usual signals of a substantial fall-off in consumer spending. It may stiil arrive, but is not yet noticeable.
The latest Treasury data on the flow of international capital to the U.S was a little softer in February; but nothing like the situation last August/September when capital flow fell and the dollar began a precipitous decline, forcing the monetary authority and its member banks into action.
Lastly, I expect the Fed will keep after the fiscal authorities; because, beyond the apparent fondness of the Fed chairman for celebrity, the Fed as an institution does not normally favor being the center of attention.
RE: The fed will stay on course for at least another .... zeus111
NEW 4/17/2005 3:32:29 PM Post Your Reply
I think the Fed will stay on course for at least another .25 point and maybe another one after that. They could say something positive about decreasing inflation risks. Lets not forget that the economy does not consist of only Ibm, gm, ford, and harley davidson. So far there is not enough evidense to my opinion that the economy is coming to a sudden halt. I understand that we retail sales were off during the last report. GM and F is more a company specific problem relying on gasguzzling truck and suvs for their profitability without a strong passenger line of cars. Ther finance unit will be affected from the downgrade of their credit quality but i am sure they will work their way around that, maybe by spinning off the finance part of the business. The market broke the January lows but there is still support around 9600-9700. Housing is still strong and to me that is the key. I havent heard any bad news coming out of that sector. Meanwhile mortgage applications increased last week. If the housing breaks it is all over but we are not quite there yet. There are still bidding wars in my part of the country, Tampa Bay area.
Strategic Alliance Brings Koelnmesse's Hardware Fair / Practical World to Global Sources' China Sourcing Fair: Gifts & Home Products in Hong Kong Monday April 18, 12:08 am ET
HONG KONG, April 18 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Global Sources and Koelnmesse have formed a strategic alliance to co-locate Koelnmesse's International Hardware Fair / Practical World Hong Kong at Global Sources' China Sourcing Fair: Gifts & Home Products. The fairs are designed to offer buyers thousands of quality manufacturers of gifts and home products, and hundreds of hardware and do-it-yourself suppliers from mainland China, Hong Kong and across Asia. The events will be held every April and October starting 2006 at the new AsiaWorld-Expo venue beside Hong Kong International Airport.
Global Sources chairman and chief executive officer, Merle A. Hinrichs, said: ''We are delighted to have Koelnmesse, Europe's leading hardware and DIY trade show organizer, bring its event to our China Sourcing Fair in Hong Kong.
''More than 38,000 buyers from 110 countries attended the October 2004 China Sourcing Fairs in Shanghai. In addition to building on our Shanghai Fairs this year and through 2006, we expect to greatly expand our Fairs when we add Hong Kong to our line-up next year. Koelnmesse's participation is evidence of the strong interest we are seeing for the Hong Kong Fairs.''
Hinrichs concluded: ''With as many as 4,000 booths each spring and fall, the combined shows are expected to be the largest gifts, home products, hardware and DIY event under one roof in Hong Kong. The scope and size of the event, coupled with the new AsiaWorld-Expo venue, will offer exhibitors and buyers great convenience and new business opportunities.''
Koelnmesse's president and chief executive officer, Jochen Witt, said: ''Through this new strategic alliance, Koelnmesse is further strengthening its involvement in trade fairs abroad. We will build on our 34-year history of hosting the International Hardware Fair / Practical World in Cologne -- the world's largest hardware, DIY and outdoor living show -- to bring hundreds of China suppliers to Hong Kong.
''The combined experience and professionalism of Koelnmesse and Global Sources ensures buyers and exhibitors of a specialized, world-class event. We aim to put Hong Kong on the map as an important center for buyers to source hardware and DIY products from across Asia.''
Asia's newest and most modern exhibition center
The AsiaWorld-Expo venue will offer more than 70,000 square meters of ground level, column-free space in 10 halls. Each hall will be equipped with data, telecom and wireless LAN services, plus state-of-the-art conference rooms, offices and catering facilities.
AsiaWorld-Expo's convenient location and extensive transportation network will make it easy for thousands of suppliers and industry associations to promote their products and services to the world through the China Sourcing Fairs.
AsiaWorld-Expo's chief executive officer, Nicolas Borit, said: ''Visitors can land at Hong Kong International Airport and walk to the venue. A new MTR line will whisk buyers from the station inside AsiaWorld-Expo to downtown Hong Kong in just 25 minutes.
''High-speed ferries will transport passengers direct from the site to key locations in southern China, as well as Macau, just 40 minutes away. This venue occupies a truly unique position in the exhibition world.''
For information about the Global Sources China Sourcing Fair: Gifts & Home Products (Shanghai 19-21 April 2005) visit http://www.chinasourcingfair.com . For details about Koelnmesse's International Hardware Fair / Practical World events, go to http://www.hardwarefair.de .
About Global Sources
Global Sources is a leading business-to-business (B2B) media company that facilitates global trade, with a particular focus on the China market, by providing information to international buyers and integrated marketing services to suppliers.
We deliver content to our communities through our leading network of nine vertical marketplaces and 13 geographic portals, and through magazines, CD-ROMs and private catalogs, as well as China Sourcing Fairs and technical events. Our flagship marketplace, Global Sources Online (www.globalsources.com), hosts more marketing and sourcing activity than any other global merchandise trade marketplace.
We serve a growing, independently certified community of more than 423,000 active buyers in over 230 countries and territories. These buyers generate more than 4 million inquiries annually for more than 130,000 suppliers through Global Sources Online alone. We offer extensive creative services and export consultation through 150 client service officers in Greater China and other leading supply markets, and through more than 800 sales representatives who make approximately 40,000 supplier visits monthly. In mainland China, we have 23 years on-the-ground presence, supported by more than 1,100 team members in 44 locations throughout the country.
Global Sources' solutions are based on 34 years as a trade magazine publisher serving the global trade community, 14 years as a trade management software developer, 13 years as manager of trade shows in Asia, and nine years as an online marketplace operator.
This news release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27-A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended and Section 21-E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. The company's actual results could differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking statements as a result of the risks associated with the company's business, changes in general economic conditions, and changes in the assumptions used in making such forward-looking statements.
Very encouraging action on all fronts today. We could be seeing the start of a trend reversal...many stocks now trading well above their low of the day on strong volume...still, i want to see some more signals that this is not once again a fake upmove.
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