Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[marketmaven]

Zeev-roadmap is to be Crammer-bailed by GreenieSpam?

http://www.prudentbear.com/bearschat/bbs_read.asp?mid=
268432&tid=268432&fid=1&start=1&am1&sb=1&snsa=A#M268432
FWIW - I agree with Cramer on the future qqq bear

NEW 4/17/2005 12:55:01 PM
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Various themes have dominated the markets. Massive deficits, continued under-employment, oil, fraud, gov spending, etc.

The "next big thing" will be the FED. If they blink and slow the rate increases, the markets will immediately surge upwards. Overwhelming the current wall of worry.
Cramer believes the FED will blink.

If they do the right thing and try to contain inflation and the housing bubble by raising rates, the markets will continue to sink and (real) unemployment will rise. Just about always have....

It is all about the FED now.......IMHO.
The wall of worry or earnings will not matter for a while.



I do not know which the FED will do, but I believe Cramer has nailed the next big thing.....


RE: Too simple - FED has that much control !!! bear_withme

NEW 4/17/2005 2:24:56 PM
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You think FED has everything in the palm of their hand ? They have that much control ?

RE: Why bubles & bursts are getting bigger ? bear_withme

NEW 4/17/2005 2:27:25 PM
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If they have that much control, why are bubbles and the subsequent Bust are getting bigger each time ?

RE: FWIW - I agree with Cramer on the future kahunabear

NEW 4/17/2005 3:08:54 PM
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I think if they fed stops raising it just shows panic that the economy is failing again and they never really could get it back on track. Not only that. It shows they have no tools left. Check mate.

RE: FWIW me thinks Okie

NEW 4/17/2005 3:23:14 PM
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Rates are still only 2/3 of norm, most especially noteworthy in view of the decline in the purchasing power of the paper money.

Seems to me there are too many catch 22, damned if you do...damned if you don't, short term correction death traps, bad credit, geo political and trade situations to make sound "guesstimates".

In a world being dominated by CBs and with the mega corps corrupting and directing our gov't as they methodically destroy the middle class, I think it is impossible to predict the outcome.

It may be that Feds can only cause more problems, I am not sure they can cure/solve anything now.

The "tail is about to wag the dog".





RE: FWIW - I agree with Cramer on the future Mr. Moto

NEW 4/17/2005 3:25:08 PM
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It's a long and running battle, Q, for stock market bears. And, I agree with you. Although there is recent and good evidence of a slight shift in the trend sentiment of institutional investors, Alan Greenspan's well-deserved reputation for creating a party atmosphere can not be ignored. The major stock indexes would certainly greet a change in monetary policy with substantial enthusiasm. I wouldn't expect, however, the Fed will provide any indication whatsoever of an ease in policy until the next actual announcement of the FOMC on May 3. We might also expect the obligatory run-up in share prices into that meeting.

It seems, too, the Administration is indeed displaying signs of panic as it must realize the standard pool of reflationary measures is somewhat shallow at this point. Hence, the re-emergence of political pressure for a renminbi revaluation and cries for other of the major developed economies to reflate. However, anyone expecting that a weaker renminbi will provide any sort of significant fix for the U.S. employment situation is highly deluded.

Much as predicted, we saw the Treasury Department on Friday furnishing the commercial banks with $13 billion from income tax revenues. But, as also stated previously, it's a temporary action; and a renewed flow of receipts is not due intil mid-June.

The last 5-yr auction was also not very well subscribed by other central banks. So, we still may have a lingering dollar problem.


It may be important to note the confluence of events that permitted a resolution to a falling dollar exchage rate ten years ago: the Fed decreasing the interbank overnight rate and the concomitant surge in share prices; the de facto decrease in the bank reserve requirement; expansion of commercial bank credit and subsequent explosion in the money supply. All the while, significant trouble was brewing in East Asia -- Japan pulling lines of commercial credit to the region and sundry other circumstances that led ultimately to capital flight from the Western Pacific Rim, a substantial amount of which landed in USD-based investment.

Still, some of the opportunities available in circumstances as they existed ten years ago are no longer present; which pretty much leaves the Fed and its central bank partners as primary dollar support, when needed. Myself, I do not prefer to rely on a one-trick pony and the Fed's bubble-blowing apparatus to ensure the success of my intermediate- and long-term investment goals. So, for me, it has for a time been pretty much a matter of tweaking my hedges on a quarterly basis around a net short position.


Yes, it's a tough row to hoe for market bears. The total of commercial and industrial credit is moving shallowly higher. Money supply growth is erratic, and by no menas high. Worldwide economic growth has softened noticeably. The manufacturing and service sectors of the U.S. economy remain, by all reports (e.g. ISM and Fed regional surveys), under the pressure of higher prices; but there is some success in passing on the price increases. And, again, by the same reports, the employment outloook is not good.

Consumer sentiment has also fallen hard of late. Yet, I am unable to detect in the money supply the usual signals of a substantial fall-off in consumer spending. It may stiil arrive, but is not yet noticeable.

The latest Treasury data on the flow of international capital to the U.S was a little softer in February; but nothing like the situation last August/September when capital flow fell and the dollar began a precipitous decline, forcing the monetary authority and its member banks into action.

Lastly, I expect the Fed will keep after the fiscal authorities; because, beyond the apparent fondness of the Fed chairman for celebrity, the Fed as an institution does not normally favor being the center of attention.

RE: The fed will stay on course for at least another .... zeus111

NEW 4/17/2005 3:32:29 PM
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I think the Fed will stay on course for at least another .25 point and maybe another one after that. They could say something positive about decreasing inflation risks. Lets not forget that the economy does not consist of only Ibm, gm, ford, and harley davidson. So far there is not enough evidense to my opinion that the economy is coming to a sudden halt. I understand that we retail sales were off during the last report. GM and F is more a company specific problem relying on gasguzzling truck and suvs for their profitability without a strong passenger line of cars. Ther finance unit will be affected from the downgrade of their credit quality but i am sure they will work their way around that, maybe by spinning off the finance part of the business. The market broke the January lows but there is still support around 9600-9700. Housing is still strong and to me that is the key. I havent heard any bad news coming out of that sector. Meanwhile mortgage applications increased last week. If the housing breaks it is all over but we are not quite there yet. There are still bidding wars in my part of the country, Tampa Bay area.