Replies to post #21220 on China MediaExpress Holdings, Inc. (fka CCME)

[Traderfan]

I very much agree with you that this could be what happened. I especially agree with you on this:

Not so different from optimistic longs who cheer any hint of good news and flame any questions about it. It's reckless, but it seems to be a typical mixture of good faith, blind optimism, and profit motive

Once people make up their minds in a certain direction it's hard for them to look at the stuff objectively. That goes for longs in general but of course also for shorts. That might also explain the ever rising short position here and why shorts refuse to cover. They might just think "hey RINO was a scam" so if anything out there looks fishy in CCME this just must be a scam as well". That's a possibility. Good post.

[mike23R]

I think that's definitely a possibility, but the hang up for me in believing that the call is all kosher is the fact that there was the promise of a job to this woman. If she was merely disseminating something given to all potential clients there shouldn't be any reason for her to seek the promise of a job.

I can't imagine they struck up the prospect of future employment at MW by chance. There was some kind of quid quo pro here that's still hidden. This is assuming of course that this woman does work(ed) for CCME and that it's not a complete set up.

[GorillaGorilla]

They just didn't understand that they were given installed #s and not contracted #s

I'm sorry, there is absolutely no way they didn't understand the difference between installed and contracted. They knew exactly the difference and even talked about it in their Analysis. They said installed wasn't significant enough to allow for discrepancy - clearly they understand this area precisely.


Analysis
The representative claimed that the discrepancy between the SEC filings and the buses quoted to us was because
approximately 50% of the buses have not yet had equipment installed; however, this explanation does not hold water. As
we pointed out in our earlier report, one of the major discrepancies is in Shanghai. As of July 2008, the company claimed
to have 2,127 buses belonging to Shanghai-based operators in the network,1 but the materials the sales representative sent
only show 296 Shanghai buses as of January 2011. Thus, the overall discrepancy must be due to more than timing
differences between when CCME signs contracts and when it installs equipment.

IMO, these are smart guys asked to produce a report on a wrong premises (that CCME is a fraud) - however smart they are they aren't smart enough to fill in all the holes in the premise.

rich

[Michael Anderson]

I dont think it is something that they just came into and then claimed fraud. With all of their accusations and misleading information, they purposely find the info that can be construed, damn well knowing it is not true. It is a huge manipulation that they have played well. They are more than an optimistic shorter. They get paid for doing this and have a huge ring of hedgefunds to help with the manipulation and benefit them as well. They arent concerned with what they think is the truth. They are concerned with what they can make to look true. There is too much information to go off of to think that MW really believed that they got information and were serving as just "whistle blowers" trying to uncover fraud. Also, you may want to take a deeper look into the ONP case as well to uncover much of their manipulation as well. It is much more than what you are stating and I am 100% about that.

[UpstateChris]

The conspiracy theories here seem unlikely.

I mean no disrespect here, but your sentiment is laughable.

Carson Block wrote the book on doing business in China. Literally.

http://www.amazon.com/Doing-Business-Dummies-Robert-Collins/dp/0470049294/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1299259329&sr=8-1

Carson Block resides in China and owns at least one business (the self storage facility).

Carson Block teaches classes on business etiquette and appropriate language skills in Chinese as posted here previously. This means that not only is he well aware of the nuances in the various dialects, but provides education on how to navigate them. This would clearly include information on the issues with common misinterpretation.

Carson Block, by his own admission in reply to the Greenberg statement, acknowledges his experience and expertise in misinformation. While it was not the intent of his statement, this fact was clearly revealed.

This is not Carson Block's first rodeo. He has fabricated evidence and "reported" on companies in China in the past with the sole intention of driving the price down. This fact is not only not disputed, it is basically his entire advertising pitch for following Muddy Waters.

Carson Block has a law degree and at some point passed the NY bar, so he isn't unintelligent.

Carson Block is at least second generation in a family of individuals involved in the market with a father who commends his son on the extensive network of contacts he has within power players of the market.


In other words, Carson Block knows EXACTLY what he is doing.
To believe anything else is complete naiveté, denial or reprehensible culpableness.


As a classically educated engineer I am well versed with Occam's Razor, and understand the point you are attempting to make. But even Occam's razor requires that prior to selecting the simplest of the competing hypothesis all data must be considered. Your relatively simplistic conclusion fails to take in to account any of my above points.