Replies to post #50423 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[wahz]

I didn't mean "silly" badly, fwiw.

I see it lasting no longer than 42 months, so it won't make it to 4 years. But yes, the dow will make a new high, for sure. Easy

[Babylon]

As a matter of fact, if we take out 1619, convicingly, then even without that sharp retracement 1936 is not out of the question for 2003, in my model.

Just to be clear, are you saying if we do not have a significant retracement from where we are now, and sail past 1619 from here (for the most part), that 1936 is in the cards?

IOW, a high cash position will remain until either A) A sharp retracement from near these levels currently or B) If 1619 is taken out (where you would again put on your bull suit?)?

I'm pretty sure I read you right, but just wanted some confirmation. TIA

[Ilya]

Zeev, how do you account for the fact that the public seem to have completely cooled down for stocks? They have been selling equity mutual funds since July, even during rallies. Also what is the driver of the rebound in the economy? Auto and housing have been too strong already. Higher interest rates will put a lid on cars and housing. Computers seem to be completely commoditized, no profits for anyone. During stock bubble the economy to some extent was driven by this bubble.

IMHO the recent rally was 60% short covering. After lackluster rebound in August shorts went wild. They shorted the bottom. For instance LU had 401,706,209 shares sold short on 11/15. Now they have covered at a loss.

Happy Hanukkah.