Replies to post #50172 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[stunjamie]

I agree with you on many points, though the 'mysterious' overnight futures gains have almost always been as a result of news, however it may have been spun, being released during the AH session in NA. On just one or two occasions, news in Europe, which does also have a telecoms/IT presence, has caused a large rise in the European stock markets, pushing the mini-Naz higher.....Vodafone and France Telecom have both done this in recent weeks, albeit for different reasons.

For myself, I know that the worst thing to do is to become inflexible about my view of things. The economy is without doubt in a whole world of pain, and future guidance, both from consumer sentiment and the honester companies is unclear, at a time when valuations on some sectors of the stock market has become outrageous.

Back to shorting again then.

[questor]

If at first you don't succeed, quit at once!

Thank you for reporting your personal trading strategy and its results. I learn a lot from the self-revelations of many like you on this thread.

(1) I agree with your assessment regarding this manipulated market. Powerful voices like augieboo and mlsoft probably agree with you, too, if I read them correctly.

(2) So why are you still hanging in there on the short side? Even Bernie Schaeffer, who has been strongly bearish, has turned bullish for the short run. He says: "My scenario calls for a huge surge in bullishness as this market continues to climb in December . . ." His guess is that the rally will spend itself by mid-January, followed by a major downturn, once most of the sideline money has been sucked in.

(3) I, too, am down. I've lost almost 10% of the capital in my trading account in JPM puts. What did I do wrong? I stayed in too long. I should have gotten out when I was down only 3 or 4%. I should have practiced what I preach, in line one, above. What did I do right? In spite of my enthusiasm, and even though I expected to make a killing, I did not allocate more than 10% of my risk capital (my small gamble fund) to JPM options.

Just trying to be helpful. My best wishes to you on this day of Thanksgiving.

[muteryuin]

If you take a careful look during the last semis downturn, they rose very fast to extreme valuations when there was not a sign of an upturn. And when the upturn came they crashed just as they were making lots of money and the companies were still not predicting a downturn.

I remember all of that because I was envious not participating in the price surge because I wasn't seeing any signs of an upturn and I did not have any previous experience on how this shit works.

It is just not obvious to most people. I guess that is the way it is supposed to be. But then again, who knows how it is going to play out this time. I just think that history is a just a guide to make a guess.

[muteryuin]

Now let me add to my last post that a novice can lose a lot of money if he uses what seems to be common sense. He might think, if they were flying when they were losing a lot of money, now that they are making a lot of money and the predictions are that they will make even more, then they are going up even more. So I am going to buy here and make a lot of money. And then he sees them going down and down. But he waits because the valuations are so low and the earning predictions are so good. Then guess what can happen? Yes that's right the companies start warning and losing money and bang! they really crash and he is now broke.