MM: I've certainly done my share of back testing indicators and various trading systems over the years, in particular the early years of my quest to make money in the markets. It was my determination that no indicator, combination of indicators or black box system proved to be consistent enough for me.
I should hedge that comment by saying some were very consistent at losing money...LOL
MM, I think you make a very useful distinction, but let me restate it to you so that I'm sure I understand your view.
I think you are saying that
[1] no indicator or system of indicators (or whatever we wish to label that bunch of stuff on which we trade) can be perfect in the sense of producing a "win" or a correct prediction every time; but,
[2] it is possible to construct a system which produces results which are internally consistent for a long enough period so that one may safely extrapolate that said system will produce at the same level of consistency into the future.
MM... In this kind of a market (IMHO) a person should become familiarized with the Bollinger Bands. These things work best in this type of sideways/volatile market.
...an example of a bullish BB signal-- here's a quiet trader that buildings a base, you'll notice the bands are starting to narrow. A narrowing band means a lack of volatility -- and stocks tend to erupt from flat uptrending bases.
...another example of a stock where you can just trade the tops and bottoms of the bands.
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